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Is the US bankrupt?

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Is the US bankrupt?

Postby sushiman » Mon Apr 11, 2011 4:01 am

As a finance man I would say most of the real heads know this is already past the point of no return. Eventually you can't refinance the debt and you either default or print money. Either way has consequences equal to default, you get cut off and that's the end.

Old paper below, it is even worse now. The author isn't some chump. With a present value of future obligations of $70B you just can't dig your way out with increased GDP (and the USA days of big GDP growth are over anyhow). You have to shut down the govt or double all personal/corporate taxes, or strategically default on someone big (like China or all oldies).

The avg Joe doesn't get this, they think the market is coming back. I think the market may have one more bounce in it, say a bubble from '13-16 or something and people get all excited that "it's over phew" before the final spiral down. Absolutely another scam like subprime would end things, the last scam drained all the money, all you need now is one more and it's over. Or if the Chinese or Japanese sell bonds, then it's over too. Or it could stragle on for 20yrs and then collapse. But i can't see a way it doesn't end in our lives. The decline is happening so fast you can see it year to year.

As a market guy I don't get personal about it, I just see that as being what exists. Thus best to have an exit plan and run for the door before everyone else.

Thoughts about this predicament?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publicat ... likoff.pdf
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Re: Is the US bankrupt?

Postby odbo » Mon Apr 11, 2011 4:22 am

sushiman wrote:As a market guy I don't get personal about it, I just see that as being what exists. Thus best to have an exit plan and run for the door before everyone else.

Thoughts about this predicament?

Ya I'd just like to say that you can't tell someone something if they don't want to listen. A lot of Americans are in complete denial over this.
They'd rather live in ignorance even if it causes much bigger problems for them in the future. Americans are scared to emigrate as well.

The US is being systematically taken down. The world's only superpower doesn't just collapse from incompetance and coincidences. If you don't want to try to understand why and call people kooks thats fine, but don't deny the reality of the situation when you can take steps to avoid flying off a cliff, and instead make a positive move and better your quality of life. People in the Soviet Union had no choice when it was collapsing. What's your excuse?

I'm talking to a hypothetical average american here :lol:

what are your thoughts on these videos?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0v1Zlyahe4[/youtube]


[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rH6_i8zuffs[/youtube]
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Re: Is the US bankrupt?

Postby globetrotter » Mon Apr 11, 2011 5:39 am

LinuxOnly wrote:The world's only superpower doesn't just collapse from incompetance and coincidences.


This is not fact.

History is full of scores of examples of the world's only superpower collapsing from incompetence, greed, bad luck and overindulgence - both monetary and social.

This precise scenario has happened many times over the past 12,000 years.

Americans cannot live within their means.
They spend more than they earn, and they save nothing.
It's that simple.

That's it, LO. That's your explanation. The USSA cannot live within its means.

The USSA is addicted to debt across all levels of society.

This flaw has taken down many a global superpower and now it is going to take down the USA.

Look on the bright side. Britain is not Sierra Leone, now is it? Their empire peaked in 1914 yet their quality of life is not terrible.
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Re: Is the US bankrupt?

Postby globetrotter » Mon Apr 11, 2011 5:43 am

sushiman wrote:As a finance man I would say most of the real heads know this is already past the point of no return. Eventually you can't refinance the debt and you either default or print money. Either way has consequences equal to default, you get cut off and that's the end.


As fellow numbers guy -

Yep. It's done. The USSA is about to hit the point of no return on the inflection point of the graph and it's going to spiral out of control.

Gross is all cash, and now is short Tsys.

He who panics first, wins.

Game Theory. He who defaults or leaves the game first, wins. Same for no-fault divorce. The one who files first wins.

Look at Iceland. They defaulted first and they look to be set for strong growth now and going forward. All they had to do was tell all the bankstas 'f**k YOU!'.

I am out, I live in Asia, my assets are 99% non-USD denominated, my salary is in CNY. I await the flash of light from the east as the USSA detonates. So to speak.

Discussion is silly at this point.

Make your plans and get the hell out. Now. Today. End of discussion.
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Re: Is the US bankrupt?

Postby zboy1 » Mon Apr 11, 2011 7:09 am

globetrotter wrote:
sushiman wrote:As a finance man I would say most of the real heads know this is already past the point of no return. Eventually you can't refinance the debt and you either default or print money. Either way has consequences equal to default, you get cut off and that's the end.


As fellow numbers guy -

Yep. It's done. The USSA is about to hit the point of no return on the inflection point of the graph and it's going to spiral out of control.

Gross is all cash, and now is short Tsys.

He who panics first, wins.

Game Theory. He who defaults or leaves the game first, wins. Same for no-fault divorce. The one who files first wins.

Look at Iceland. They defaulted first and they look to be set for strong growth now and going forward. All they had to do was tell all the bankstas 'f**k YOU!'.

I am out, I live in Asia, my assets are 99% non-USD denominated, my salary is in CNY. I await the flash of light from the east as the USSA detonates. So to speak.

Discussion is silly at this point.

Make your plans and get the hell out. Now. Today. End of discussion.


Can I ask you a question globetrotter. How hard was it for you to move to another country? I am seriously thinking of leaving this country. I have experienced living abroad before because I was in the military and I was luck to be stationed in Europe. I have also traveled to various Asian countries and as well as countries in Central America. I loved every minute of it.

The problem is I am currently unemployed and cant find any job, only have about 4G in the bank, with 15G in college loans and still in the process of getting my bachelors degree. Should I wait to finish my degree or leave immediately. I'm also a registered x-ray tech, so I do have a lot of marketable skills. I have even pondered backpacking through Asia. Are they a lot of jobs for people like me in Asia?

I won't be able to be an English teacher because I don't have any TEFL, TESOL certification. I am of Asian descent, so that does make it easier for me to transition to an Asian country if I do decide to leave.
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Re: Is the US bankrupt?

Postby globetrotter » Mon Apr 11, 2011 10:28 am

zboy1 wrote:
globetrotter wrote:
sushiman wrote:As a finance man I would say most of the real heads know this is already past the point of no return. Eventually you can't refinance the debt and you either default or print money. Either way has consequences equal to default, you get cut off and that's the end.


As fellow numbers guy -

Yep. It's done. The USSA is about to hit the point of no return on the inflection point of the graph and it's going to spiral out of control.

Gross is all cash, and now is short Tsys.

He who panics first, wins.

Game Theory. He who defaults or leaves the game first, wins. Same for no-fault divorce. The one who files first wins.

Look at Iceland. They defaulted first and they look to be set for strong growth now and going forward. All they had to do was tell all the bankstas 'f**k YOU!'.

I am out, I live in Asia, my assets are 99% non-USD denominated, my salary is in CNY. I await the flash of light from the east as the USSA detonates. So to speak.

Discussion is silly at this point.

Make your plans and get the hell out. Now. Today. End of discussion.


Can I ask you a question globetrotter. How hard was it for you to move to another country? I am seriously thinking of leaving this country. I have experienced living abroad before because I was in the military and I was luck to be stationed in Europe. I have also traveled to various Asian countries and as well as countries in Central America. I loved every minute of it.

The problem is I am currently unemployed and cant find any job, only have about 4G in the bank, with 15G in college loans and still in the process of getting my bachelors degree. Should I wait to finish my degree or leave immediately. I'm also a registered x-ray tech, so I do have a lot of marketable skills. I have even pondered backpacking through Asia. Are they a lot of jobs for people like me in Asia?

I won't be able to be an English teacher because I don't have any TEFL, TESOL certification. I am of Asian descent, so that does make it easier for me to transition to an Asian country if I do decide to leave.


Get your bachelors for as little money as possible, the cheapest legit and accredited school you can find. ANY BA or BS. ANY ANY ANY. Take that, your x-ray tech cert, get an ESL cert and go.

4g is enough IF you have a job lined up and they pay your rent and utilities. China, Japan, Korea, Asia pay this well. The Middle East is best, but you need real experience, a degree in ESL, 3+ years on the job, etc.

This is how i did it, honestly.

In Dec, 2005 I took my first trip to Mexico. To that date only to Canada, the UK, Europe.
This trip consisted of me walking to the McDonald's 5 minutes from the border, buying a soda, and walking back. That first trip 2 cops yelled 'Puto!' at me to get a rise out of me. Eyes ahead, keep walking, breath calmly.

A few weeks later another trip, looking for the pedestrian bridge across..
A few weeks later another and another and another.
Then I got a room, stayed overnight in MX, returned the next day.
Jan 2006 This went on for a few months, then I took a week vacation to central mexico at a language school, lived in a families house for that week.
2007 The next year (I do not miss the USSA 5 days off a year program...) I took a week vacation to Colombia.
2008 The next year I lived in Mexico for 3 months.
8 weeks later I moved to China
I have been here for 18 months.

Once you do it once, the skill set is the same. China, France, Chile, Angola - it does not matter. After the second time you are changed for life.
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