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Is 2016 the last chance to expatriate?

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MattHanson1990
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Posts: 757
Joined: June 19th, 2014, 7:47 am

Is 2016 the last chance to expatriate?

Post by MattHanson1990 » May 20th, 2016, 8:47 am

With Taco posting that the economy will crash this year, this makes me wonder if the window to expatriate is going to close for good overnight, especially if this next economic crisis is going to be a lot worse than 2008 and is exactly like what Venezuela is going through right now. Taco thinks there will be a full-on collapse, but ghost thinks the collapse is gradual. An full economic collapse is a danger for guys wanting to expat, especially for guys who can't get a foothold in life. The government will get A LOT more totalitarian, and there will be more travel bans. I'm really concerned that young guys still in college and set to graduate next year or later won't be able to go abroad at all.

Please tell me that the ongoing collapse is gradual and that the US of Gay won't turn into Venezuela overnight.

The_Adventurer
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Joined: August 23rd, 2007, 5:17 pm

Re: Is 2016 the last chance to expatriate?

Post by The_Adventurer » May 20th, 2016, 9:46 am

I saw a video where Peter Schiff says the dollar collapse is coming May 28, 2016.

I, personally, think it will be sudden, swift and catch everyone off guard. I also think, though, that it will not be as bad as sensationalist news sites make it out to be. If you have your stuff in order, you can breeze through it.
“b***y is so strong that there are dudes willing to blow themselves up for the highly unlikely possibility of b***y in another dimension." -- Joe Rogan

Rock
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Joined: April 21st, 2010, 5:16 pm

Re: Is 2016 the last chance to expatriate?

Post by Rock » May 20th, 2016, 10:32 am

MattHanson1990 wrote:With Taco posting that the economy will crash this year, this makes me wonder if the window to expatriate is going to close for good overnight, especially if this next economic crisis is going to be a lot worse than 2008 and is exactly like what Venezuela is going through right now. Taco thinks there will be a full-on collapse, but ghost thinks the collapse is gradual. An full economic collapse is a danger for guys wanting to expat, especially for guys who can't get a foothold in life. The government will get A LOT more totalitarian, and there will be more travel bans. I'm really concerned that young guys still in college and set to graduate next year or later won't be able to go abroad at all.

Please tell me that the ongoing collapse is gradual and that the US of Gay won't turn into Venezuela overnight.
Matt my friend, Taco has been publicly forecasting that the US economy would crash every year since 2010 hahaha. He's also predicted since then that gold would explode upwards and the USD would collapse. Well just look at what has happened in the real world from 2011 - 2016: Gold fell, USD rocketed against commodities, rose significantly against most other currencies in the world, and stock markets have reached record highs.

If you make critical decisions based on Taco's predictions, his track record suggests that you would be much better off doing the opposite of what he recommends!!!

Read through archives of his posts and it will quickly become clear.

Ghost
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Re: Is 2016 the last chance to expatriate?

Post by Ghost » May 20th, 2016, 9:45 pm

It's unlikely that we'll have a fast crash, although I'll admit that technology allows for it. Past empires collapsed gradually. It's likely the American Empire will collapse gradually as well. (It has been declining for decades now, so it has been gradual so far.) For a fast collapse, we'd have to have an EMP attack, nuclear war, or something similar. Peak oil got delayed a while, so that's still under gradual. After the 2008 economic crash, things kept chugging along despite how shitty things got. I expect the next crash will make things worse overall but we'll keep chugging along for a while. Eventually American civilization will end, though.

I doubt 2016 will be the year of the big one. Things will be worse in 2017 but we'll still be here.

gnosis
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Re: Is 2016 the last chance to expatriate?

Post by gnosis » May 20th, 2016, 10:16 pm

You should worry a lot more about building up an online income, and much less about some arbitrary expatriation deadline.

MattHanson1990
Junior Poster
Posts: 757
Joined: June 19th, 2014, 7:47 am

Re: Is 2016 the last chance to expatriate?

Post by MattHanson1990 » May 21st, 2016, 4:29 am

Ghost wrote:It's unlikely that we'll have a fast crash, although I'll admit that technology allows for it. Past empires collapsed gradually. It's likely the American Empire will collapse gradually as well. (It has been declining for decades now, so it has been gradual so far.) For a fast collapse, we'd have to have an EMP attack, nuclear war, or something similar. Peak oil got delayed a while, so that's still under gradual. After the 2008 economic crash, things kept chugging along despite how shitty things got. I expect the next crash will make things worse overall but we'll keep chugging along for a while. Eventually American civilization will end, though.

I doubt 2016 will be the year of the big one. Things will be worse in 2017 but we'll still be here.
How come some people forecast that the next economic crisis will wipe out everyone's bank accounts overnight, making everyone broke, and causing credit/debit cards to stop working?

gnosis
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Re: Is 2016 the last chance to expatriate?

Post by gnosis » May 21st, 2016, 5:12 am

MattHanson1990 wrote:
Ghost wrote:It's unlikely that we'll have a fast crash, although I'll admit that technology allows for it. Past empires collapsed gradually. It's likely the American Empire will collapse gradually as well. (It has been declining for decades now, so it has been gradual so far.) For a fast collapse, we'd have to have an EMP attack, nuclear war, or something similar. Peak oil got delayed a while, so that's still under gradual. After the 2008 economic crash, things kept chugging along despite how shitty things got. I expect the next crash will make things worse overall but we'll keep chugging along for a while. Eventually American civilization will end, though.

I doubt 2016 will be the year of the big one. Things will be worse in 2017 but we'll still be here.
How come some people forecast that the next economic crisis will wipe out everyone's bank accounts overnight, making everyone broke, and causing credit/debit cards to stop working?
Because they're always doing that. It's how guys like Peter Schiff make money. Think of it as news porn for people who aren't very bright.

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Yohan
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Re: Is 2016 the last chance to expatriate?

Post by Yohan » May 21st, 2016, 5:46 am

Ghost wrote: I doubt 2016 will be the year of the big one. Things will be worse in 2017 but we'll still be here.
This is it about in a single sentence, good summery of the present situation in many Western countries.

While USA is clearly declining, it is still in the upper part of the world economy.
USA will however continue to become a less and less important nation and its influence will continue to decline.

The main problem with US-policy is about to care more about other countries than about the situation in USA itself.

This creates a lot of enemies, not only in the Muslim world. While there is no problem with US-citizens abroad, US-politics are causing mistrust everywhere.
There is this permanent stupid but aggressive talk about human rights, women rights, animal rights, children rights, religious freedom, etc. like if all laws worldwide should be 'international rights', the same laws as those in USA, because only these laws are the only true laws.

cdnFA
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Re: Is 2016 the last chance to expatriate?

Post by cdnFA » May 21st, 2016, 5:55 am

Rock wrote:
Matt my friend, Taco has been publicly forecasting that the US economy would crash every year since 2010 hahaha. He's also predicted since then that gold would explode upwards and the USD would collapse. Well just look at what has happened in the real world from 2011 - 2016: Gold fell, USD rocketed against commodities, rose significantly against most other currencies in the world, and stock markets have reached record highs.

If you make critical decisions based on Taco's predictions, his track record suggests that you would be much better off doing the opposite of what he recommends!!!

Read through archives of his posts and it will quickly become clear.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Browne
He was predicting collaspe and depression of one sort or another for the longest time.
Then he came up with his permanent portfolio idea and basically admitted that he and nobody else can predict the future and anywhere he got close was a matter of luck. I like the guy, I agree with much but not all of his How I Found Freedom book.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doug_Casey
I've only read his first three books, I assume he is still pushing gold and collapse. Maybe sometime in the next 3 decades.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howard_Ruff
Another one who has been at it for 40 years. He is a bit different in that he was early pushing a more survivalist bent which fit in with his Mormon background.

There are many others and aside from Browne I bet you they are all pushing the exact same projections as they have been in the 70's and 80's. When you have a hammer everything starts looking like a nail.

I used to collect books on depression investing back in High School, I'd scourer the used book stores and well as library and getting them new.
They are very convincing as hell, well unless you are reading the book 5 or 10 years after they were printed. However the analysis was pretty solid.
It was also pretty much wrong, or at least wildly exaggerated.

There is a lesson there which nobody will learn.

But hey, use interlibrary loan to get those books. They are actually fun to read and very interesting.

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