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US Markets Hit Record Highs

Discuss issues related to business, finance, taxes, investments, cost of living in different countries, etc.

Moderators: fschmidt, jamesbond

Taco
Elite Upper Class Poster
Posts: 4560
Joined: July 9th, 2011, 5:30 pm

Re: US Markets Hit Record Highs

Post by Taco » August 23rd, 2017, 11:01 pm

HSBC Holdings Plc, Citigroup Inc. and Morgan Stanley see mounting evidence that global markets are in the last stage of their rallies before a downturn in the business cycle. The word "downturn" is used because it sounds less ominous than the word "crash".

Wall Street Banks Warn Downturn Is Coming
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ycle-peaks

Stock market corrections follows a particular pattern. That pattern is:

1) The initial decline
2) The bounce
3) The REAL decline

The downwards move last week was #1. We’re now in #2.

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Last edited by Taco on August 30th, 2017, 11:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
“Every time a President leaves the White House after two terms, there is a recession within the next year"

Taco
Elite Upper Class Poster
Posts: 4560
Joined: July 9th, 2011, 5:30 pm

Re: US Markets Hit Record Highs

Post by Taco » August 25th, 2017, 2:47 pm

The most expensive market ever based on S&P 500 Price To Sales Ratio

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Next stop, is recession to be announced soon by the main stream media...

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“Every time a President leaves the White House after two terms, there is a recession within the next year"

Taco
Elite Upper Class Poster
Posts: 4560
Joined: July 9th, 2011, 5:30 pm

Re: US Markets Hit Record Highs

Post by Taco » August 26th, 2017, 9:26 am

Investors are pulling their money from the US markets after it hits a record high on August 8th. What could possibly go wrong? I wouldn't be putting my money in real estate either...

Mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could need nearly $100 billion in bailout money in the event of a new economic crisis.

Investors pull billions from US stocks in longest outflow streak since 2004
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/25/investo ... -2004.html

Fannie-Freddie Might Need $100 Billion in New Crisis, FHFA Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -fhfa-says

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“Every time a President leaves the White House after two terms, there is a recession within the next year"

Taco
Elite Upper Class Poster
Posts: 4560
Joined: July 9th, 2011, 5:30 pm

Re: US Markets Hit Record Highs

Post by Taco » August 30th, 2017, 6:42 pm

"The natural price discovery mechanism that is the hallmark of a free market has been destroyed.The world has not been closer to the use of nuclear weapons since Truman used them on Japan. The stock markets globally should be in free-fall if the price discovery mechanism was functioning properly.

The financial exposure to the tragedy in Houston is conservatively estimated at several hundred billion. Insurance companies off-load a lot of risk exposure using derivatives. The potential counter-party default risk connected to this could dwarf the defaults that triggered the AIG and Goldman Sachs de facto collapse in 2008. Blackrock estimates that insurance investment portfolios could lose half a trillion in value in the next big market sell-off. The stock “market” should be down at least 20% just from the probability of this occurrence.

The two problems combined are the equivalent of a financial nuclear melt-down."

“Stock Market?” What Stock “Market?”
http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/s ... ck-market/
“Every time a President leaves the White House after two terms, there is a recession within the next year"

Taco
Elite Upper Class Poster
Posts: 4560
Joined: July 9th, 2011, 5:30 pm

Re: US Markets Hit Record Highs

Post by Taco » September 7th, 2017, 4:05 am

This just in...

September’s Bringing Tons of Catalysts to Shatter Market Calm
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... arket-calm
“Every time a President leaves the White House after two terms, there is a recession within the next year"

Taco
Elite Upper Class Poster
Posts: 4560
Joined: July 9th, 2011, 5:30 pm

Re: US Markets Hit Record Highs

Post by Taco » September 13th, 2017, 1:27 am

The optimism connected to the US markets is staggering. According to recent survey, 80% of Americans believe that stock prices will not be lower in the next 12 months. This is the highest level of optimism since the fall of 2007. The SPX topped out just as this metric hit its high-point. The only time this level of optimism was higher in the history of the survey was in early 2000.

S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow close at records
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/12/us-stoc ... ecord.html

Market Correction Could Start Very Soon
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -very-soon

Robert Rubin, deciding not to finish out his term as Secretary of the Treasury and left the Clinton administration just a few months before the dot.com bubble popped? In a similar fashion, Fed. vice president, Stanley Fischer is quiting his job on October 13, 2017 citing personal reasons.

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“Every time a President leaves the White House after two terms, there is a recession within the next year"

Taco
Elite Upper Class Poster
Posts: 4560
Joined: July 9th, 2011, 5:30 pm

Re: US Markets Hit Record Highs

Post by Taco » September 22nd, 2017, 1:35 am

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“Every time a President leaves the White House after two terms, there is a recession within the next year"

Taco
Elite Upper Class Poster
Posts: 4560
Joined: July 9th, 2011, 5:30 pm

Re: US Markets Hit Record Highs

Post by Taco » September 26th, 2017, 1:24 am

Without the Fed’s direct support of the stock market, there’s no question in my mind that the stock market would be crashing. Only 43.5% of the stocks in the NYSE are trading above their 200 dma, which means that 56.5% are trading below the 200 dma.

Some other bearish technical indicators,1) Since the end of July, the volume on down days in the stock price has been higher than the the volume on up days; 2) The RSI has been declining gradually since early April; 3) the MACD (bottom panel) has been declining steadily since early June. All three of these indicators reflect large institutional and/or hedge funds selling their positions.

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Forex options traders are the only ones seeing through all the BS...

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“Every time a President leaves the White House after two terms, there is a recession within the next year"

Taco
Elite Upper Class Poster
Posts: 4560
Joined: July 9th, 2011, 5:30 pm

Re: US Markets Hit Record Highs

Post by Taco » October 4th, 2017, 12:48 pm

Just saying...

The Biggest Stock Market Crashes Tend To Happen In October
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-0 ... en-october

Active bond traders have never been more short treasurys

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Fear and greed index second highest since 1998.

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“Every time a President leaves the White House after two terms, there is a recession within the next year"

Taco
Elite Upper Class Poster
Posts: 4560
Joined: July 9th, 2011, 5:30 pm

Re: US Markets Hit Record Highs

Post by Taco » October 11th, 2017, 11:22 pm

Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett summarized the current market as follows: the "best reason to be bearish in Q4 is there is no reason to be bearish."

Every month another sentiment indicator seems to pop to a frothy new extreme. Last month it was the percentage of cash that members of the American Association of Individual Investors harbored in their investment portfolios. At 14.5%, it was the smallest allocation to this safe alternative since January 2000, the same month that the Dow Industrials began a 38% decline that lasted through October 2002. Last month, we also showed a new bullish extreme for the five-day average of Market Vane’s Bullish Consensus survey of advisors. On September 15, the average pushed to 71%, a new ten-year extreme.

The most recent Commitment of Traders Report shows that Large Speculators in futures on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) have amassed a record net- short position of 172,395 contracts.

Hardcore Doom Porn
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2017 ... doom-porn/

"The Probability Of A Flash Crash Grows Exponentially"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-1 ... onentially

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfqB02fzqdY[/youtube]

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Google trends searches for the words "melt up".

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The latest number on CNN's fear and greed indicator...

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“Every time a President leaves the White House after two terms, there is a recession within the next year"

Taco
Elite Upper Class Poster
Posts: 4560
Joined: July 9th, 2011, 5:30 pm

Re: US Markets Hit Record Highs

Post by Taco » October 13th, 2017, 11:44 pm

“Every time a President leaves the White House after two terms, there is a recession within the next year"

Taco
Elite Upper Class Poster
Posts: 4560
Joined: July 9th, 2011, 5:30 pm

Re: US Markets Hit Record Highs

Post by Taco » November 1st, 2017, 7:53 am

In October the CBOE Volatility Index recorded the lowest monthly average in its history, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The "calm" before the storm...

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The US markets will break another record if they don't correct by the end of January 2018. It is extremely overbought.

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“Every time a President leaves the White House after two terms, there is a recession within the next year"

WorldTraveler
Junior Poster
Posts: 707
Joined: June 3rd, 2008, 3:46 pm

Re: US Markets Hit Record Highs

Post by WorldTraveler » November 2nd, 2017, 12:29 am

Taco, your videos and charts are very informative. It looks like we're in a very over bought market, probably a bubble waiting to crash. Are you in or are you out? How are you positioned and making making money in this market> I'm mostly out since September 2017. I haven't made anything but I haven't lost anything either. :D

Taco
Elite Upper Class Poster
Posts: 4560
Joined: July 9th, 2011, 5:30 pm

Re: US Markets Hit Record Highs

Post by Taco » November 2nd, 2017, 2:24 am

WorldTraveler wrote: It looks like we're in a very over bought market, probably a bubble waiting to crash.
That's the understatement of the century.

Its not just another stock market crash that's coming. Its the collapse of the entire global financial system as we know it which something far more serious and will effect every country. There will not be a middle class anywhere after this crash happens. You'll be lucky to survive it because the banks in every country will be closed for about 90 days you won't be able to get your money out of the bank. Credit and debit cards will stop working around the world.

I suggest you stockpile at least 3 months of food and supplies in a secure location. Most western countries will be under martial law after this crash happens. At that point, anything you own can be seized including your bank account and trading account. Travel will be limited. Prepare yourself accordingly...

WorldTraveler wrote: How are you positioned and making making money in this market.
Most traders are looking forward to this crash because they believe it will be just like every other US market crash, it won't be.

I haven't traded for years.

Here's what's going to happen in the next crash...

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_pjMw91P_6M[/youtube]
“Every time a President leaves the White House after two terms, there is a recession within the next year"

Taco
Elite Upper Class Poster
Posts: 4560
Joined: July 9th, 2011, 5:30 pm

Re: US Markets Hit Record Highs

Post by Taco » November 3rd, 2017, 4:18 am

The last time manufacturing productivity was this low the market crashed...

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Here's a nice chart of the S+P 500 going parabolic

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“Every time a President leaves the White House after two terms, there is a recession within the next year"

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