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Posted: November 27th, 2012, 1:13 am
by mguy
zboy1 wrote:The Philippines, due to their lack of emphasis on education and a generally ambivalence towards capitalism, will never achieve the economic activity of the other Asian tiger economies; but, maybe that is good in a way, because capitalism does tend to bring out the worst aspects of society like materialism, greed, and feminist equality to economically developed countries.
It will. Trust me.

It will not go for full capitalism, it will go for crony capitalism. It will be highly unequal but still Filipino-ish. I like the idea of Koreans going to the Philippines. It has enriched us tremendously, but they will never get representation same goes for Chinese. BTW, in general Filipinos distrust Koreans (they too much pare), but feel strong kinship with Chinese.

Currency will strengthen against dollar and/against index of major basket currency in the next 10 years, I wished I cashed in 5 years ago when it peaked 55/$. There are smart Filipinos, but most have left for abroad, leaving the super-smart (no reason to immigrate) to become ruthless in their survival -- they now own the country.

Feminism has already creeped in judging by Family interactions with younger generations.

Posted: November 27th, 2012, 1:16 am
by abcdavid01
Man, I love capitalism, and I think it's the greatest thing in the world for human development, progress, hell even in medicine keeping us alive longer. Nevertheless, I recognize the price. It's no coincidence that zealots like Ayn Rand say selfishness is a virtue. And in that sense I even have sympathy for Marxist ideas of alienation. I'm anti-materialist and Feminism, itself a Marxist idea, I get that it would pop up as a reaction to overzealous capitalism. Why can't people just let their work lie when they're at home? I mean, capitalism's best for business and business is best for human development. But why must it ruin cultures? And what is the solution? This could have its own topic, its own book even.

Posted: November 27th, 2012, 1:24 am
by noog
By 2020? I just don't see it. PH has very high unemployment and underemployment to the point that many of the citizens go to work full-time overseas. If I'm not mistaken, that productivity goes to the foreign country's GDP. A lot of the skilled labor leaves the country so how do you become a tiger economy doing that?

The corporation I work for opened up a call center in Manila that is doing well. If PH looks to leverage their customer service and English-speaking ability in the international marketplace it would help. I suppose things may be on the upswing but I just don't see that 2020 prediction holding up.

Posted: November 27th, 2012, 1:40 am
by mguy
1. The call centers used to belong to India, as the Philippines was too poor to support it.

2. Now the Philippines has the call center, and India moves up to higher function such as engineering/RD.

3. Now India is developing its own technology, the Philippine call center boom is over (heading to latin america but that is another thread! The English Latino) and is now producing engineers.

Economies are always in the state of flux.

The problem really is population. The poor f**k like rabbits I swear. The Catholic church protects them and Politicians cannot attack the church. "La masa" as we refer to them are reproducing at an alarming rate, one of our maid alone has popped up 3 and she is only in her 20s -- there are no social programs so shes basically indentured. I think it was last year they set-up the first abortion clinic (this is huge and indicative of cultural shift).

It's third world dilemma how to preserve culture while modernization.

Posted: November 27th, 2012, 1:46 am
by mguy
There was time that Philippines was second only to Japan in economy.

Heck! In my Grand Parents days the Chinese were viewed so poor and a basket case that they were instructed to be nice to them! Now f***ing look at them with their sky scrapers.

Meanwhile America faces a budget deficit as it borrowed too much from the Chinese.

Posted: November 27th, 2012, 1:52 am
by mguy
But how is it that Brazil, with all those happy-go-lucky, a**-shaking party-goers, is an economic powerhouse? Are you sure that Flips' lack of seriousness and diligence really dooms them to poverty?
Clue: it is the elites. The Brazilian elite share different values that those ass shaking party goers. I imagine it would be hard to penetrate this circle as well.

This is the same in any country. Find who controls what and see what they are like.

Posted: November 27th, 2012, 1:54 am
by publicduende
Guys, they used to have exactly the same reservations on Colombia no more than 15 years ago. We can now see that Colombia is booming and is already the second ex-aequo (with Chile) powerhouse of South America. Indeed, considering Mexico is being plagued by the same narco warfare that used to be a trademark of Colombia and growing economic and social malaise, I wouldn't be surprised if they managed to snatch absolute second place in the whole of Latin America, in only a few years.

From what I read from the usual liberist suspects (FT.com, The Economist, etc.), the Philippines are set to become at least a regional power in the next decade, overtaking Thailand and racing on a par with Malaysia and Indonesia. Also, let's not forget that the Philippines already did hit the ranks of a prosper and developed country, with advanced industries (electronic and computing, to name a few) and an educated, productive populace. This was soon after WW2 and then briefly during the 80s, before South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore. And before Marcos and his nomenklatura pillaged the nation's coffers leaving behind a hollow, bankrupt government full of corrupt officers.

This is also my argument against the cruel myth that Filipinos are sub-humans with the lowest IQ in Asia. I remember my dad's first IBM PC had "made in the Philippines" written all over it. Involution must happen pretty damn quick, if the same people who could design and assemble advanced electronics in the 80s, pretty much the same way Taiwanese and Chinese do now, are now only capable of throwing money at cock fights and sit on derelict Internet cafes looking for foreign men to con. A regression at the socio-cultural levels is a more likely explanation and is, after all, what is happening to countries like Mexico and even the US, as many of you bemoan.

Coming back to the comparison with Colombia, it only took one president (Uribe) who had a balanced stance on foreign investment vs. internal trade development (see viewtopic.php?t=16807) and enough resolve to kick the FARCs off the major cities, leaving them finally able to breathe and thrive, to change the face of the country. True, the US had been investing in Colombia for a number of years, but this kind of foreign investment is ripe in the Philippines too. Colombia has excellent (albeit private) universities, their medical schools being second to none, and so do the Philippines, certainly better than Malaysia and Indonesia.

Ultimately, I think the fate of the Philippines as a developed economy is earmarked as it is that of other large, resource-rich countries in the area (Malaysia and Indonesia, and not Vietnam, not Cambodia and not even Thailand). If foreign interests don't start selling air con units, SUVs and iPads to a fast growing middle class, another Cory Aquino might come along and instill enough national pride to let the Filipinos develop their industries, tap into their massive resource pool and stimulate internal consumption and exports. There's a 92 million people market waiting. Do you think the Koreans and Japanese will just sit and stare?

On a slight romantic note, one can only hope Filipinos and Filipinas won't end up selling too much of their souls to the demons of materialism and consumerism, forgetting their biggest values yet: their innate warmth and strong sense of community/family cohesion.

Posted: November 27th, 2012, 2:07 am
by mguy
The next generation will not be the same as this generation. I and my friends are already categorized as old school and conservatives, belonging to a "vieja Filipina" demographic; i'm not even 30 yet.

Feminism will botch the Filipina, I see it already occurring in my family.

Posted: November 27th, 2012, 2:26 am
by lavezzi
[quote]I mean, capitalism's best for business and business is best for human development. But why must it ruin cultures? And what is the solution? This could have its own topic, its own book even.[/quote]

capitalism is exploitation of the frailities of human nature for profit. the benefit of economic growth at the expense of the total spiritual decay of a culture. wealth is set as the one and only measure of human success and each and every person is taught to aspire to it as their highest goal. every facet of the culture then forms around this notion and what you end up with is a bunch of soulless humanoids.

the solution is for people to learn the distinction between an economic system and reality, and not to confuse the two.

Posted: November 27th, 2012, 3:18 am
by abcdavid01
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexch ... _down_rudd
Hayek says, correctly, that in wealthy, advanced societies we have made a great transition from a system of personal exchange--based on kinship ties, group solidarity, and local reputation from repeated interaction--to an "extended order" of impersonal exchange. Crossing the chasm from personal to impersonal exchange is the great accomplishment of civilisation enabling the health, wealth, and prosperity enjoyed in the modern world...But Hayek is crystal clear that altruism, fellow feeling, solidarity, etc. are what makes families and small communities work, and he specifically instructs us not to apply the artificial habits of the market to hearth and home lest we make a hash of it.
This is what is outlined in his work The Fatal Conceit, which is like my personal Bible. The Socialists are wrong because they'd have us move backward in time, destroy our wealth, and have us live like cavemen, shortened lifespan and all. The extreme Capitalists like Rand would have us become robots. Hayek has it right, but how do we teach that divide? How do we stop sentiments of the home and community from infecting the market? Likewise, how do we stop the impersonalization of the market from infecting our homes? If the answer is known, how is it applied? It is something I will teach my children, but I don't know how to change society.

Posted: November 27th, 2012, 3:49 am
by ladislav
We'd better get permanent visas to stay there soon because as they get richer it will be harder and harder for foreigners of modest means to stay there. Also, we'd better buy condos and hold on to them because real estate will appreciate fast.

The problem with a lot of countries like the Philippines or India or even Mexico is the huge number of peasant-minded people who are still stuck in the rural and feudal frame of mind- make lots of kids, send kids to work and sit back and depend on them for livelihood- an agricultural model. Marry your daughters off to rich men and then have them leech of off them to " help" the family. This 21st century peasant class is a burden on the economy and a huge sucking apparatus to sponge in all the profit anyone makes.

And they way an average Filipino still sees America and Americans makes one thing that we are still in mid 50ies somewhere- America is the richest nation on earth, all people are rich, everyone has a great job with a great salary, etc. Most Pinoys would easily just give up their passport and take the US one- it is seen as an honor there.
This is what is outlined in his work The Fatal Conceit, which is like my personal Bible. The Socialists are wrong because they'd have us move backward in time, destroy our wealth, and have us live like cavemen, shortened lifespan and all. The extreme Capitalists like Rand would have us become robots. Hayek has it right, but how do we teach that divide? How do we stop sentiments of the home and community from infecting the market? Likewise, how do we stop the impersonalization of the market from infecting our homes? If the answer is known, how is it applied? It is something I will teach my children, but I don't know how to change society.
The answer is not to have just socialism- it will become USSR or just pure capitalism- it will become Somalia or pure communism- it will become Cambodia under Pol Pot. What you need is a system that has all the elements of three introduced in a volunteer manner without anyone being forced to do anything they do not want. It worked for a while in Israel where they had these kibbutzes which were totally communist but the country was half socialist half capitalist.

Keeping home intact is done by having a strong religion in society that emphacizes marriage and family. Islam and old fashioned Catholicism seem to do best of it. So does Hinduism. The Protestant and Buddhist faiths are too weak to control the family/relationship structure because they do not delve into people's personal lives.

Posted: November 28th, 2012, 8:37 am
by Jester
zboy1 wrote:The Philippines will never be as economically advanced as the rest of East Asia due to massive corruption, poor education, overpopulation, and bureaucracy. That, and the the Filipinos are not as hard-working and entrepreneurial as the more prosperous Asians. I doubt the Philippines will ever reach developed status in my lifetime...
Not arguing with your facts.

But re your conclusion, let me play devil's advocate:

Thai, Indonesians and Malaysians are also relaxed type cultures... yet the countries have powerful growing economies. Right?

Posted: November 28th, 2012, 8:45 am
by Jester
mguy wrote:
But how is it that Brazil, with all those happy-go-lucky, a**-shaking party-goers, is an economic powerhouse? Are you sure that Flips' lack of seriousness and diligence really dooms them to poverty?
Clue: it is the elites. The Brazilian elite share different values that those a** shaking party goers. I imagine it would be hard to penetrate this circle as well.

This is the same in any country. Find who controls what and see what they are like.
Fair point.

This would explain India's success, as well as Brazil's.

Posted: November 28th, 2012, 11:30 am
by zboy1
Jester wrote:
zboy1 wrote:The Philippines will never be as economically advanced as the rest of East Asia due to massive corruption, poor education, overpopulation, and bureaucracy. That, and the the Filipinos are not as hard-working and entrepreneurial as the more prosperous Asians. I doubt the Philippines will ever reach developed status in my lifetime...
Not arguing with your facts.

But re your conclusion, let me play devil's advocate:

Thai, Indonesians and Malaysians are also relaxed type cultures... yet the countries have powerful growing economies. Right?
Those countries also have large Chinese and Indian populations, so they benefit from having the brainpower unlike in the Philippines.

Posted: November 28th, 2012, 11:54 am
by Banano
ladislav wrote:The development is evident in the kind of women that engage in bar trade/erotic dancing and other such red light endeavors. Some 10 years ago, you could see very pretty women in that type of industry and now it is mostly ageing single mothers and very unattractive women period. The bars take anyone now, as long as they are under 32 years old. This shows that pretty girls now have other alternatives.

Same can be said about Thailand, women in late 20s and 30s are working in bars and masage places, many unattractive ones, lucky if you find without kids. 10 years ago you would have to look hard to find one over 30.

I always wondered why bar bosses are not a bit smarter and hire more quality chicks over quantity, it makes me think they never reject any girl as long as they are willing to be there and hang around.