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Why The Crash of 2016 Will Happen...

Discuss issues related to business, finance, taxes, investments, cost of living in different countries, etc.

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Cornfed
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Re: Why The Crash of 2016 Will Happen...

Post by Cornfed » December 20th, 2016, 7:51 pm

Devil Dog wrote:
Cornfed wrote:
HouseMD wrote:Shorting is big business, bigger than holding by far.
Eh, there are several general disadvantages for short compared to long positions.

Eh, he didn't write that there aren't disadvantages. Refute his statement.
His statement is a logical impossibility, since for every short position there has to be a corresponding long position, whereas the reverse isn’t true. The trouble with the idea that prophets of doom could clean up if they really were prophetic is that short positions are very time dependent. You not only need to foresee that things are going to hell, you have to foresee exactly when, which is much more difficult.

HouseMD
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Re: Why The Crash of 2016 Will Happen...

Post by HouseMD » December 20th, 2016, 7:58 pm

Cornfed wrote:
Devil Dog wrote:
Cornfed wrote:
HouseMD wrote:Shorting is big business, bigger than holding by far.
Eh, there are several general disadvantages for short compared to long positions.

Eh, he didn't write that there aren't disadvantages. Refute his statement.
His statement is a logical impossibility, since for every short position there has to be a corresponding long position, whereas the reverse isn’t true. The trouble with the idea that prophets of doom could clean up if they really were prophetic is that short positions are very time dependent. You not only need to foresee that things are going to hell, you have to foresee exactly when, which is much more difficult.
Shorting is how the big boys make money- it's where the real business is. Plebs deal long.

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Cornfed
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Re: Why The Crash of 2016 Will Happen...

Post by Cornfed » December 20th, 2016, 8:05 pm

HouseMD wrote:Shorting is how the big boys make money- it's where the real business is. Plebs deal long.
I thought even among the elite, unhedged short positions have traditionally been the most efficient way to send yourself rocketing to the poorhouse. Hedging is where the big money is. I guess there would be exceptions such as various forms of insider trading and brokers trading against their own clients, but that is not really applicable to Taco’s situation.

Moretorque
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Re: Why The Crash of 2016 Will Happen...

Post by Moretorque » December 20th, 2016, 8:23 pm

HouseMD wrote:
Cornfed wrote:
Devil Dog wrote:
Cornfed wrote:
HouseMD wrote:Shorting is big business, bigger than holding by far.
Eh, there are several general disadvantages for short compared to long positions.

Eh, he didn't write that there aren't disadvantages. Refute his statement.
His statement is a logical impossibility, since for every short position there has to be a corresponding long position, whereas the reverse isn’t true. The trouble with the idea that prophets of doom could clean up if they really were prophetic is that short positions are very time dependent. You not only need to foresee that things are going to hell, you have to foresee exactly when, which is much more difficult.
Shorting is how the big boys make money- it's where the real business is. Plebs deal long.

The big boys make their money by just counterfeiting it, the game is designed to shift all wealth to the top from the lower rungs so they end up owning the whole planet and leave the rest of us butt a$$ naked on the street corner so they can remain in control forever.....
Time to Hide!

Taco
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Re: Why The Crash of 2016 Will Happen...

Post by Taco » December 23rd, 2016, 4:08 am

The U.S. financial markets, specifically the U.S. dollar and the stock market, can be likened to fiat currency-based financial markets “Super Nova.” The public and the momentum-chasing hedge funds are desperately chasing the “appearance” of the stock market’s “bright new star.” Unfortunately, it’s an illusion. The stock market is headed for catastrophic destruction. There won't be a middle class left on planet earth after the next stock market crash.

This is happening at a time when investors are RECORD bullish on stocks. Everyone and I mean EVERYONE is "all in" on stocks. Hedge funds, commercial traders, even individual investors have piled into the market. This will end badly as all manias do. The market is primed for a 10% drop... possibly more.

THIS WILL HIT BEFORE THE END OF JANUARY.

US stocks could crash through any number of means:

1. China implements a massive one-off devaluation of the Yuan to counter act the rising dollar.
2. The $10 Trillion US Dollar carry trade blows up.
3. The $199 Trillion Bond Bubble implodes as debt deflation ripples through the financial system.
4. The $555 Trillion derivatives market based on interest rates ignites courtesy of a bond sell-off.
5. Deutsche Bank failure
6. US Fed rate hike
7. US Dollar rejection in trade payments
8. Italian bank collapse & exit from Common Euro Currency
9. Contagion in Europe
10. Gold Market Arbitrage Breakdown
11. Gold-backed currency announced in East
12. Saudi acceptance of RMB in Chinese oil sales

U.S. Economic Confidence Surges To The Highest Level That Gallup Has Ever Recorded
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/arch ... r-recorded

Dollar rises to 14-year high, yen falls after BOJ
http://www.reuters.com/article/uk-globa ... SKBN14901O

The market is about to wake up to something bad. That something is the fact that the $USD’s strength is going to crush corporate profits in 1Q17

Image

Image

Image
“Every time a President leaves the White House after two terms, there is a recession within the next year"

WorldTraveler
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Re: Why The Crash of 2016 Will Happen...

Post by WorldTraveler » December 25th, 2016, 7:42 am

Contrarian Expatriate wrote:Robert Kiyosaki lays out another case for 2016 being the year of the crash:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiENFvvZQVc

Kiyosaki is the first person I have seen notify people that 2016 is the year the oldest baby boomers turn 70, the age when you MUST withdraw IRA and retirement funds. This is they key fact most people miss that will lead to a tanking of the equity markets.

I don't think that Saudis will unilaterally leave the petrodollar for a couple or reasons. First, there are international agreements to which they are a party that they cannot just walk away from. Also, they would doom themselves to the abyss by departing from the petrodollar and in effect, they would be locking themselves out of the world oil market.
Kiyosaki is just following Harry Dent who wrote many books based on the demographic data. The crash they were predicting didn't happens so they're now saying it will happy because the oldest of the baby boomers will have to pull their money out. I may take another 10 or 20 years to happy. Productivity is high. I see people dying to work. The market is not rational or else it would have already crashed.

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Re: Why The Crash of 2016 Will Happen...

Post by WorldTraveler » December 25th, 2016, 7:48 am

Taco wrote:
This is happening at a time when investors are RECORD bullish on stocks. Everyone and I mean EVERYONE is "all in" on stocks. Hedge funds, commercial traders, even individual investors have piled into the market. This will end badly as all manias do. The market is primed for a 10% drop... possibly more.

Image
So what is a 10% correction, that's like predicting it may rain. Yes, we'll probably get 10% correction almost anytime. The only thing I'm concerned with is a 25 - 30% crash.

Also what does this chart mean? I'm clueless.

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droid
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Re: Why The Crash of 2016 Will Happen...

Post by droid » December 25th, 2016, 7:53 am

WorldTraveler wrote:
Taco wrote: Image
Also what does this chart mean? I'm clueless.
Lol that's called "technical analysis", which pretty much just lets you believe whatever you want to believe
1)Too much of one thing defeats the purpose.
2)Everybody is full of it. What's your hypocrisy?

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droid
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Re: Why The Crash of 2016 Will Happen...

Post by droid » December 25th, 2016, 8:02 am

Taco wrote:6. US Fed rate hike
Most likely, if jellenowitzsteinsteinberg decides to start hiking and eventually the debt can't be serviced and/or they have to start printing further to keep the free stuff gravy train.
1)Too much of one thing defeats the purpose.
2)Everybody is full of it. What's your hypocrisy?

Taco
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Re: Why The Crash of 2016 Will Happen...

Post by Taco » December 25th, 2016, 11:29 am

WorldTraveler wrote:
Taco wrote:
This is happening at a time when investors are RECORD bullish on stocks. Everyone and I mean EVERYONE is "all in" on stocks. Hedge funds, commercial traders, even individual investors have piled into the market. This will end badly as all manias do. The market is primed for a 10% drop... possibly more.

Image
So what is a 10% correction, that's like predicting it may rain. Yes, we'll probably get 10% correction almost anytime. The only thing I'm concerned with is a 25 - 30% crash.

Also what does this chart mean? I'm clueless.
The Tech bubble burst in 2001. The housing bubble burst in 2008. The crash coming in 2017 will be partly caused by the US bond market. The US bond market has been in a 35 year bull market and its ending very soon.

The Fed just hiked interest rates 2 weeks ago. The last time they hiked rates the Shanghai Composite crashed a month later. The Chinese gov. stepped in before it crashed all the way.

The US government is trying to keep the US markets propped up at all costs because a 10% market correction would cause a massive derivatives meltdown.

The 35-Year Bull Market in Bonds Comes to an End
https://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/35-ye ... 016/11/14/
“Every time a President leaves the White House after two terms, there is a recession within the next year"

WorldTraveler
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Re: Why The Crash of 2016 Will Happen...

Post by WorldTraveler » December 27th, 2016, 2:19 am

Taco wrote:
WorldTraveler wrote:
Taco wrote:
This is happening at a time when investors are RECORD bullish on stocks. Everyone and I mean EVERYONE is "all in" on stocks. Hedge funds, commercial traders, even individual investors have piled into the market. This will end badly as all manias do. The market is primed for a 10% drop... possibly more.

Image
So what is a 10% correction, that's like predicting it may rain. Yes, we'll probably get 10% correction almost anytime. The only thing I'm concerned with is a 25 - 30% crash.

Also what does this chart mean? I'm clueless.
The Tech bubble burst in 2001. The housing bubble burst in 2008. The crash coming in 2017 will be partly caused by the US bond market. The US bond market has been in a 35 year bull market and its ending very soon.

The Fed just hiked interest rates 2 weeks ago. The last time they hiked rates the Shanghai Composite crashed a month later. The Chinese gov. stepped in before it crashed all the way.

The US government is trying to keep the US markets propped up at all costs because a 10% market correction would cause a massive derivatives meltdown.

The 35-Year Bull Market in Bonds Comes to an End
https://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/35-ye ... 016/11/14/
Taco, I hope you are right. I am sitting in cash mostly. I had a short on junk bonds a couple years ago, but closed it out. Where can I invest to make money in this coming crash?

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Cornfed
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Re: Why The Crash of 2016 Will Happen...

Post by Cornfed » December 27th, 2016, 2:39 am

WorldTraveler wrote:Taco, I hope you are right. I am sitting in cash mostly.
Wouldn't it be better to be in silver bullion or whatever?

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Re: Why The Crash of 2016 Will Happen...

Post by WorldTraveler » December 27th, 2016, 3:40 am

Cornfed wrote:
WorldTraveler wrote:Taco, I hope you are right. I am sitting in cash mostly.
Wouldn't it be better to be in silver bullion or whatever?
Image

No, it's been going straight down since 2011. I wish I was good at timing the market, because I would have gotten in in 2009 and out in 2011 and then retired with a harem of beauties on a beach somewhere.

Where do you have your money?

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Cornfed
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Re: Why The Crash of 2016 Will Happen...

Post by Cornfed » December 27th, 2016, 3:55 am

WorldTraveler wrote:Where do you have your money?
My money, such as it is, is also in cash, but that is because I need it to be because of my circumstances.

ezinho
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Re: Why The Crash of 2016 Will Happen...

Post by ezinho » December 27th, 2016, 5:10 am

Remember when all the precious metal bugs said that silver was going to hit $100/oz? "High ho silver to 100" was the saying back in 2010 or 2011 if I remember correctly.

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