I'm not sure what the future trends for the English language are. Korea, Taiwan and Japan will use English teachers less simply because their birth rate is low. China has a low birth rate too but still has huge demand for teachers. Chinese students have to pass an English test in order to graduate from University and unless the Chinese government changes the law it will stay that way.momopi wrote:Taco, do you think in such scenario, the American sellers will expect FOB Chinese buyers to speak English, or will they hire Chinese speaking sales staff to cater to the buyers?Taco wrote: If anything an economic collapse will generate a lot of foreign investment because western countries will be having a "going out of business sale" and everything will be at rock bottom prices like you currently see in the Detroit real estate market. The Chinese have tons of money but they have no place to invest it so they build ghost cities in the middle of nowhere, its better to invest their money in North America. So, I wouldn't write off English speaking just yet.
Given a scenario where US economy collapses and does not recover, do you believe that the market value of English teachers overseas will rise, remain the same, or go in decline?
Whatever language spoken in the country or territory that you're going to and am trying to make a living in. If you thought that learning Chinese would be useful, but ended up in Brazil, then your Chinese language skills might not be useful there.tre wrote:So if your motivation is financial, which language is best for a 2nd language? Also, explain your choice please.
There was an interesting story about Italian pizza chef being hired by the North Korean leadership. He got the job because he spoke Russian. That would be quite a rare exception.
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My $0.02 is that the demand for English teachers is dependent on how well the US maintains its position int he world. The Chinese are actually less confident about the future than Americans. Rupert Hoogewerf from Luxembourg publishes the Hurun Report, which is like Forbe's richest list for China. According to his research, there are approx. 1.05 million individuals in China with assets in excess of 10 million RMB, with average age of 40. Approx. 80% of the wealthy wants sends their kids to study abroad. Of those sent to study abroad, 43% to the US and 34% to England.
If the US (and possibly the western world in general) were to collapse economically, then there would be far less incentive to send their kids to school in a country in the dumps (or turned into a source of raw materials), or to hire English tutors at home. But that is a black and white scenario and I do not expect the US to collapse in the near future. However, in regards to English teachers in Asia, I believe in the future there will be more competition (unemployed folks from English speaking countries seeking employment abroad) and stricter requirements. I think the schools will have more job applicants to choose from and can afford to be picky with degrees and resume's, as well as the applicant's age range.
IMO older English teachers abroad who are coming to forums like this, telling young men to stay where they are, don't go to college, the future is hopeless, etc. are throwing young men under the bus to protect themselves from competition. People like me, on the other hand, actively encourage young men and women to go abroad because I believe that should be part of their life experience.
Last edited by momopi on October 21st, 2013, 8:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
This has already happened to the nth degree in Korea and most other places. People like black South Africans, who could make an OK living in public schools prior to 2010 if they were any good, would not get the time of day now. Basically the ideal applicant is a tall, Nordic, attractive, big-titted, 22yo North American female with an English-specific degree and a CELTA or equivalent certificate, and it goes down from there. As time goes on, the further you are from that ideal, the bleaker you chances get. That also means pay and conditions go down, since with so many applicants, they can easily replace anyone. I've pointed this out many times, not because I want to eliminate my competition, but because it is true and I want to help people by telling them the truth.
When people say "Golden Age", it usually denotes a period of prosperity, with implication that it's followed by a period of decline. Beirut (Lebanon) in mid 1950's to mid 1970's was thought by many to be a golden age or period. My teacher from culinary school left France to work there in 1970's and said it was the best time of his life. However the Lebanese Civil War (1975-1990) destroyed that prosperity.
Shanghai in the 1990's was also considered to be an golden age by many Taiwanese, back when property prices were low enough to be considered affordable (or even cheap) by Taiwanese buyers, and investment/business opportunities were plentiful. Stories of brothers from rural Taiwan moving to China to open an instant noodle factory and prospered into a large company ran on newspapers. The Taiwanese businessmen also had their pick of local girlfriends, concubines, and 2nd wives when it was more affordable. However in recent years the Shanghai women have elevated expectations and everything has gotten much more expensive. Mainland Chinese investors are now looking to buy in Taiwan, if allowed to do so. Taiwanese investors today have to look to more undeveloped or underdeveloped areas in China for better opportunities.
The early 2000's in China was considered by many professionals to be a golden age where both Chinese and foreign companies paid large salaries for professionals and consultants willing to relocate to China. However by 2012, I was told by some that increased competition from both ex-pats and local talent has resulted in a reduction in pay by as much as 50%.
English Teachers in Japan today are complaining that traditional, better paying gigs are being replaced by lower paying subcontractors (dispatch firms). Where ALT's (assistant language teachers) used to get hired directly by schools and paid over $3,000/month, now schools are contracting dispatch firms to hire temps, and the salary level has decreased to ~$2,000/month. To them, the "golden age" of teaching English in Japan is over. However, this is also following the general trend in Japan where temp workforce has risen from 15% in 1982 to 34% in 2010.
Today, it's reported that Rural China has a shortage of English teachers, and the requirements are not as strict. China's own education ministry has trouble finding qualified teachers to work in impoverished rural areas. They've been increasing expenditure in rural education, and in recent years qualified urban teachers willing to relocate to poor rural areas have been given bonus financial incentives that started at 300 RMB and has since risen to 1,400 RMB ($230 USD) per month. Does this trend mean English teachers going to rural areas may be offered better contract completion bonuses in the future? I do not know. Perhaps those who are currently teaching in China can speak on this subject.
What I do know is, looking at trends from other parts of East Asia, in the future Rural China's schools will likely tighten their requirements for English teachers, and having a college degree will be better than not having one. This is, of course, assuming that you believe the demand for English teachers in rural China to continue, instead of going into rapid decline.
No doubt you are right. The question is, is going to the expense and trouble of getting a degree worth it just to have a better chance of teaching English in rural China?
In terms of market size, there are approx. 6.2 million rural teachers in primary and middle schools, with over 100 million students. Rural teachers are often unqualified, lacking college degrees or necessary education themselves. For schools that do not have qualified English teachers, they play DVD's on TV for lessons, which is considered inferior and inadequate by parents. English teachers in rural areas have 2 market segments, first is the students, second is the teachers that need to be trained themselves.
From 2009 financial incentives were offered to qualified teachers from urban schools to relocate to rural areas and teach there. The financial incentives for one area started at 300 RMB per month in 2009, to 600 RMB in 2010, then to 1400 RMB today. Both central and local governments have pledged billions of RMB to improve rural education in recent years.
The market is definitely there, but I cannot say how much of the money will trickle down to English teachers in the future. Perhaps someone who currently teaches in China can speak on the subject.
Here is another example of what happens when a respected defense analyst publication employ scholars who can't be bothered to learn Chinese (or even check basic facts) to write articles:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ ... /ddg-x.htm
"Type 055 / DDG-X [Area Defense Project]
The PLAN seeks to push its maritime defense perimeter further seaward. This change in operations will require newer, more modern warships and submarines capable of operating out to the Ryukyu Islands and into the South China Sea. At these extended ranges, the platforms will have to be better armed to enable defense from all methods of attack. The Navy has been conducting research and acquiring foreign technology in an effort to improve the broad range of naval warfare capabilities; it also is acquiring new classes of ships that will be better suited for operations out to the limits of the East and South China Seas.
The PLAN continues to have long-standing concerns about its capability to engage enemy aircraft, cruise missiles and precision-guided munitions. This problem is becoming more significant as the Navy strives to operate away from the protection of land-based air defenses. PLAN surface combatants have a limited, and primarily self-defense, anti-air warfare (AAW) capability. Only about twelve of its destroyers and frigates are outfitted with SAM systems; the others are armed only with AAA and possibly man-portable air defense systems.
In addition, PLAN warships lacked the modern air surveillance systems and data links required for area air defense missions. The combination of short-range weapons and lack of modern surveillance systems limits the PLAN to self-defense and point-defense anti-air warfare only. Consequently, except in unusual circumstances, no PLAN ship is capable of conducting air defense of another ship. Additionally, the PLAN could not reliably defend against either current or projected anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM).
There has been some speculation that a new design would be constructed with a 10,000 ton displacement. This might be equipped with the "Rif" Naval S-300 system, which utilizes a single Tombstone phased array radar, in a vertical launching system (VLS).
Since late 2012, Chinese military forums began discussion of a new Type 055 missile destroyer. Sources reported top161.cn that the design of the destroyer has been completed. The destroyer was to have better stealth design with low noise, infrared and electromagnetic characteristics. It was said to have a new generation of multi-module active phased array radar with a range of 600 km able to monitor and control several hundred targets and automatically distribute targets to various combat units (including the destroyer itself and other combat units), and a joint combat data distribution transmission system similar to the Link-16 of US Navy. Its firepower was said to be 3 to 5 times greater than that of US Arleigh Burke class destroyer and 2 times greater than that of US Ticonderoga class cruiser. These reports claim that a Chinese aircraft carrier combat group will contain one carrier, two 055 destroyers, four 052D destroyers and four 054A frigates.
By one observer concluded as of mid-2013 that "No doubt PLAN would not stop at Type 054D... and will carry on advancing if economic and politics continue to be stable and there are no major problem happening internally. But up till now, unless there are official sounding or anyone who could provide good solid source and references, it seemed like alot of hot air are around and alot of fanboys dream.""
Sadly, other than the first paragraph, there isn't a single paragraph afterwards that is accurate or free of dumb assumptions. To start, the author seems to think that the entire Chinese Navy only has 12 warships with Surface(ship)-to-Air Missiles. It's more like ~70. The rest of the article goes downhill from there.
Thankfully (hopefully?), American policy makers are not using this kind of material for reference.
I read that Mao tried to make the mandarin writing simpler but failed as the traditionalists were quite strong. Probably in the near future they will change their awfull writing system. Then they also shold change their whole language which sounds prette bad. ItÂ´s like torture for the ears. Or they should create some acceptable music. These guys are more than 1 billion and I canÂ´t remember one f***ing chinese song. ThatÂ´s awfull. Even the Indians did quite well with Bollywood music and stuff. The Chinese have to do something to appeal to the world otherwise their image will always be quite negative.
The simplified characters were first introduced in 1935-1936 by the Chinese Nationalists, but failed due to opposition by traditionalists. Mao's regime succeeded in implementing a more extensive simplified character set in 1950's-1960's, which is in use by China, Malaysia, and Singapore today.
Like it or not, there will be no major change to the Chinese writing system in the near future. However, in terms of computer/digital input systems, that has already gone through several major changes in the past ~30 years. Also, it may interest you to know that those who "think" in Chinese use different parts of the brain to those who "think" in English with certain tasks. This leads to some interesting possibilities to optimize processes by using different languages in mind.
As a reactionary, I oppose simplification and support a return to traditional characters and teaching of classics at school. For American schools, I support a return of classical education in Latin and Greek.
As for the Bollywood comparison, China's domestic film industry was tasked to produce pro-CCP propaganda films in the past and, obviously they were not popular abroad. Hong Kong, on the other hand, enjoyed success in exporting its film, TV shows, music, pop culture, etc over the decades. Up until the mid to late 1990s, HK was the 3rd largest movie industry in the world and 2nd largest exporter of movies. This also contributed to maintaining the prestige dialect among the larger 60+ million Cantonese speakers world-wide.
In recent years the Chinese have invested heavily in its domestic film industry, and last year it has surpassed Japan to become the 2nd largest market for movies. Chinese investors are also investing in US film industry. In 2006 there were 4.753 cinema screens in China, in 2011 there were 10,700. The consequence to this rapid growth is that Hollywood is increasingly adopting a "finlandization" stance toward the CCP regime. In the past, Hollywood would not have shyed away from producing movies showing the Soviets, the Vietnamese, Arabs, or whatever as villeins in its films. Today, we see that the 2012 "Red Dawn" remake had re-casted the occupation of America by Chinese forces, to North Korean forces. THQ's "Homefront" video game followed suit and swapped the Chinese with North Koreans.
If you think the lack of Mainland Chinese exports of film and music is an image problem, let me assure you that the CCP have another remedy to "influence" its image problem:
http://www.news.com.au/entertainment/mo ... 6395386352
If aesthetics is your main concern for languages, then perhaps we could advocate replacing English with Elvish as the new lingua franca. Sindarin, anyone?
Nothing against Elvish but I donÂ´t know a good Elvish song eather. The thing is China tries to have a better image but I donÂ´t believe it will work. The culture is to much unappealing for the "heart". Shure Hong Kong produced some nice Martial Arts films but still the people and actors feel one dimensional and without personality.
But the problem will always be if the culture itself is appealing otherwise it will be aesthetics on the surface and dirt in the hidden like Potemkin villages. Reminds me all in all to Sowjet aesthetics. Not really the real deal.
Is it really that difficult to produce beautiful songs? Yes, seems like.
...not at all...
he he he
Anyways, this is going off-topic. The original discussion is if it's worth the effort to learn Asian languages. As I said earlier, if one wishes to remain ignorant and live in a happy bubble, then that's perfectly fine, assuming the person is OK with wearing colored lenses and walk into a library and can't read. However, the problem is that the so called experts and scholars who are supposed to learn how to read are instead taking the happy bubble advise. So instead of writing based on facts, they're writing articles, books, and journals from ignorance.
Imagine if a Chinese author writes a military fiction about sailing a Chinese submarine up the Colorado River. Disregarding various water level and geographic impossibilities, one has to ask how the submarine could go upstream through Hoover Dam. Yet, American military fiction authors have been known to write stories about sailing an American nuclear powered submarine up the Yangtze River, pass Hubei. One has to ask how the SSN could leap the 600 foot tall Three Gorges Dam like a giant salmon gunning for its spawning pool. That, is the result of living in a happy bubble.
China today is a up and coming competitor to the US on many fronts. Lee Kuan Yew, former PM of Singapore wrote in Forbes this month:
"What is it that makes Americans so much more versatile and innovative? I believe the Chinese have come to the conclusion that the answer lies in the differing natures of the two societies. Innovation and creativity are a part of the American culture, a natural trait of an immigrant society. But Chinaâ€™s is a culture of conformism. It is a 4,000- to 5,000-year-old society, with a written script thatâ€™s as readable today as it was 4,000 years ago. That script binds the people to their history.
Yet despite these differences, it is inevitable that the balance of power in the Pacific will shift to the western side."
The "west side" of the Pacific is China, a near-future peer competitor that America cannot afford to remain ignorant of. For other countries in the Pacific, such as Tonga, the Chinese influence is already at the door and on the purse strings. Out of its $325 million debt, $209 million are owed to China, versus $61.3 million to Asian Development Bank and $39 million to International Development Agency (World Bank). Last month, China agreed to indefinitely defer Tonga's repayment on $119 million worth of loans. As you know there is no free lunch in this world, so expect Tonga to continue support the "One China principal" at Taiwan's expense.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/currenteven ... what-then/
Holy shit, I thought your links to music were ment serious. oh lord they are disgusting.
Anyway the 4000 years history where they can read their old stuff is amazing but at some point not very appealing. I still think they should change.
Some turkish countries changed their writing system 3 times in few decades. -
Happy Bubble I donÂ´t know for shure. Sometimes the Chinese live in a "happy" bubble. They often come in packs and donÂ´t let chanllenge their belief system because they can outnumber others. So I am not shure if the Chinese are so realistic.
Anyway of course they are going to be a major global player but without cultural creativity they might fall back to their dullness and boringness. Rather they might fall apart or a fascist regime might take over - North Korean style.