Does Taiwan belong to China? Will China ever invade Taiwan?

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Yohan
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Re: Does Taiwan belong to China? Will China ever invade Taiwan?

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Winston wrote:
January 7th, 2021, 3:54 am
Documentary about whether Taiwan will be China's next target?

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Adding to Taiwan’s profound vulnerability, there is growing doubt that the any country would come to its aid in the event of Chinese military action – or even have the capability to do so.
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What should the democratic world do to minimize the risk of an open conflict between China and Taiwan?
Nobody will send combat soldiers to Taiwan to defend it, however USA will surely support Taiwan with any kind of urgently required military stuff 'from behind' and Taiwan, if attacked will cause with its airforce serious damages to industrial estates and several large cities like Xiamen 厦门市 located on the mainland, not far away from Taiwan.

Taiwan cannot be taken by surprise as it has several small islands, strongly fortified, under its control very near to the Chinese mainland, so I doubt that Taiwan is the primary target for China to invade it. To remove the Taiwan government by military force is not so easy.


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Re: Does Taiwan belong to China? Will China ever invade Taiwan?

Post by Winston »

Is this true?

WAR FOOTING WW3 fears as Chinese state media reveals ‘three-stage battle plan’ to invade Taiwan as US stages war games in Pacific

https://www.the-sun.com/news/3203525/ww ... ttle-plan/

Its not in Chinese character to invade or start a fight right? How often have Chinese invaded anyone in the last 5000 years? Maybe Tibet in the 50s. But virtually nonexistent right? Chinese never mug people or start bar fights. Its not in their character.

Also China's reputation already sucks cause of COVID-19. So why would they damage their reputation even further? Every country would boycott China if they started invading militarily right?

Isn't it more likely that China is waiting for taiwan to economically choke itself to death? And then it will beg China for help? At that point China can come and take over and revitalize it. Economic warfare is the new warfare of the 21st century. Using troops and missiles is outdated now right?
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Re: Does Taiwan belong to China? Will China ever invade Taiwan?

Post by Daddy Wu »

Winston! My son!

Go do service! In Taiwan army!!

Then you do patriotic duty!

And lose weight at same time!!

举两得 ! ("kill two bird, one stone!")

Image


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Your Daddy
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Re: Does Taiwan belong to China? Will China ever invade Taiwan?

Post by Gali »

Winston wrote:
July 3rd, 2021, 7:11 am
Is this true?

WAR FOOTING WW3 fears as Chinese state media reveals ‘three-stage battle plan’ to invade Taiwan as US stages war games in Pacific

https://www.the-sun.com/news/3203525/ww ... ttle-plan/

Its not in Chinese character to invade or start a fight right? How often have Chinese invaded anyone in the last 5000 years? Maybe Tibet in the 50s. But virtually nonexistent right? Chinese never mug people or start bar fights. Its not in their character.

Also China's reputation already sucks cause of COVID-19. So why would they damage their reputation even further? Every country would boycott China if they started invading militarily right?

Isn't it more likely that China is waiting for taiwan to economically choke itself to death? And then it will beg China for help? At that point China can come and take over and revitalize it. Economic warfare is the new warfare of the 21st century. Using troops and missiles is outdated now right?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8R9MtM42P8
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Re: Does Taiwan belong to China? Will China ever invade Taiwan?

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Winston wrote:
July 3rd, 2021, 7:11 am
Is this true?
WAR FOOTING WW3 fears as Chinese state media reveals ‘three-stage battle plan’ to invade Taiwan as US stages war games in Pacific

Its not in Chinese character to invade or start a fight right? How often have Chinese invaded anyone in the last 5000 years? Maybe Tibet in the 50s. But virtually nonexistent right? Chinese never mug people or start bar fights. Its not in their character.

Also China's reputation already sucks cause of COVID-19...
China does not care about anything, neither about covid-19 nor about the international reaction if it tries to invade Taiwan.

China already in its past invaded Tibet, was fighting for the existence of North Korea, it had armed border disputes with Russia (Ussuri 1969) and later also entered Vietnam but it was facing strong resistance and moved back again. It has violent border disputes with India, intimidates Mongolia, and even threatening with its armed coastguard ships to use weapons if some weak nearby countries like Philippines, question its strange claim to an entire ocean. the South China Sea.

China's claims about Japanese controlled territory is small, only a few empty islands and it is more about fishing grounds and deep sea resources (Senkaku) but the Japanese navy and coastguard are not so small, so it continues daily with provocation at high sea but avoids open confrontation.

You can stop China only with military force if it is coming against you, no other way. This country is not your friend and will never be. China will take from you whatever it can.

--------------------------------------

About Taiwan, to invade it is not easy, Taiwan controls also Kinmen Islands 金門縣 very near to China and also Matsu Islands 連江縣 and near to Taiwan also Penghu Islands 澎湖縣 and it is fully armed, there are military facilities dispersed over all Taiwan on both sides of the coast and on various small islands between China and Taiwan.

Taiwan will hardly run out of military and otherwise support material from USA and some other countries like Japan.
Should China really try it, of course China will win, but it will take a while and the destruction along cities of its coastline, like Fuzhou 福州市, Xiamen 厦门市 and Quanzhou 泉州市 will be a major disaster, many millions of people are living there.

China will try to isolate Taiwan and its 24 million citizens more and more, little by little - its shipping routes, its civil air traffic, its exports and imports, its overseas offices and it is easier now after HongKong will be nothing but an ordinary Chinese city without any privileges.

I do not expect any military action from China against Taiwan, not now, but who knows what will be after a few decades?
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Re: Does Taiwan belong to China? Will China ever invade Taiwan?

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The simplest way to beat Taiwan is a sea blockade. Modern drone torpedoes make this very easy. China can also threaten Japan and Korea with such blockades, though they probably won't because that might provoke a unified response by all surrounding countries. However, China can bully Japan and Korea into remaining neutral as it challenges the USA.

The loss of Taiwan will appear to the world like a defeat of the USA by united China/Russia, which will cause a dramatic shift in world power relations. There is no way to avoid this defeat. It will take at least 40 years for USA and its allies to gradually get the upper hand again.

The USA can never be invaded, but the days of its world domination are numbered. Only reason China hasn't already moved against Taiwan is that every year that passes makes the defeat of the USA easier and more inevitable.

USA power has always been sea power, but modern technology changes the equation for sea power. It is now much, much easier to cut shipping lanes than keep them open, especially sea lanes close to the attacker. China doesn't need open shipping lanes as long as it can buy raw materials (especially oil) from Russia. Whereas USA and its Asian allies because very weak if sea lanes are cut.
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Re: Does Taiwan belong to China? Will China ever invade Taiwan?

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Japan pledges to defend Taiwan if China invades.

https://www.rt.com/news/528488-japan-de ... -us-china/

But Japan has no military since WW2 right?

Americas biggest mistake was fighting japan in WW2. If they had left Japan alone to rule China then there would be no bullshit Mao and communism to take over China. Big mistake.
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Re: Does Taiwan belong to China? Will China ever invade Taiwan?

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Btw I heard that China holds 4 trillion in US bonds and can crash the US economy anytime, so the US does not dare go to war with China. Is that true? If so, China can invade Taiwan any time it wants right?
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Re: Does Taiwan belong to China? Will China ever invade Taiwan?

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Winston wrote:
July 7th, 2021, 11:55 am
Japan pledges to defend Taiwan if China invades.

But Japan has no military since WW2 right?
From where do you get that? If you look up some military websites comparing military worldwide, you will notice that Japan is around rank 4 to rank 7.
Especially its navy is very strong and it is acknowledged that the Japanese military is really very good equipped.

And add to it the US-military, especially its navy, which is always moving nearby to the Japanese warships.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Izumo-cla ... _destroyer


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyūga-cla ... _destroyer
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Re: Does Taiwan belong to China? Will China ever invade Taiwan?

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Winston wrote:
July 7th, 2021, 11:56 am
Btw I heard that China holds 4 trillion in US bonds and can crash the US economy anytime, so the US does not dare go to war with China. Is that true? If so, China can invade Taiwan any time it wants right?
China does hold that many bonds but according to people, the US could decide to pay them very slowly or declare it an act of economic warfare so decline to pay them all at once. The US could also decide to sanction the Chinese government's US bond holdings making it impossible for them to cash them.

Why do you think Russia engaged in de-dollarization and will avoid holding US bonds?

It would crash the dollar in the process and the global financial markets but that is really part of the endgame anyway.

China is meant to rise this century while the EU stagnates, the US collapses, Russia is resurgent, and the rest of the world needs to choose a side: China or America...

It is obvious that when America becomes a truly poor nation, all the other nations will drop America for either neutrality or align with China.
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Re: Does Taiwan belong to China? Will China ever invade Taiwan?

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But I heard that after WW2 japan was not allowed to have any navy at all? Maybe that eventually changed when the US took control of Japan and gradually leaned off the restrictions?
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Re: Does Taiwan belong to China? Will China ever invade Taiwan?

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Winston wrote:
July 11th, 2021, 3:52 am
But I heard that after WW2 japan was not allowed to have any navy at all? Maybe that eventually changed when the US took control of Japan and gradually leaned off the restrictions?
By the constitution, everything related to the Japanese Military is about self defense only. There is no equipment to invade, to attack another country. However the Japanese Self Defence Forces are fairly large, especially its Navy.

List of active Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force ships
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a ... orce_ships
Wikipedia: List of active ships of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force is a list of ships in active service with the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force. The JMSDF is one of the world's largest navies and the second largest navy in Asia in terms of fleet tonnage
From one comment of these many military sources on the internet:
The JMSDF has an official strength of 50,000 personnel, but presently numbers around 50,800 active personnel. As a result of continuing effective defense investment due to Japan's economic development and an end to the Cold War, the JMSDF became the world's fourth largest navy by total tonnage by 2000.
The newest Japanese military ships

Frigate 'Kumano'


Frigate Mogami


Newest submarine 'Taigei'
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Re: Does Taiwan belong to China? Will China ever invade Taiwan?

Post by Winston »

But yohan, a bunch of military ships could easily be converted from defensive to offensive right? I guess Japan is limited and the US only allows it to have a small amount of ships for self defense only. Not enough for an invasion force. Right? That allows Japan to invest all their money into business and surpass the USA on VCRs and TVs, which is why US products could not compete with japanese products.
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Re: Does Taiwan belong to China? Will China ever invade Taiwan?

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Yohan wrote:
July 11th, 2021, 9:35 am
By the constitution, everything related to the Japanese Military is about self defense only. There is no equipment to invade, to attack another country. However the Japanese Self Defence Forces are fairly large, especially its Navy.
Logically, isn't it fair to say that a great defense alone isn't enough because some offense is necessary for deterrence? Maybe not invade, but powerful missiles or armed drones to hit another nation back if attacked.

Eventually, a nation with a great offense and great defense will be able to win a war against a purely defensive nation. Even a nation with a great offense but weak defense could eventually win against great defense because defense is about holding back an attack.

Every nation wants to have attack weaponry for defense and second strike.

But if America is providing the offensive power, then that means they don't need to have offensive power until America loses its dominance.
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Yohan
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Re: Does Taiwan belong to China? Will China ever invade Taiwan?

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Winston wrote:
July 11th, 2021, 11:48 am
But yohan, a bunch of military ships could easily be converted from defensive to offensive right? I guess Japan is limited and the US only allows it to have a small amount of ships for self defense only.
I have no idea, what is a small military (navy, air force, ground troops) + coastguard for you.
Small amount of Japanese war ships?

About Japan: (considered somewhat between rank no. 4 and rank no. 7 of many military sources worldwide)

Japanese Navy
approx. 154 war ships + 346 airplanes, helicopters, 45.000 staff

Japanese Air Force
approx 745 airplanes (including 330 fighters), 50.000 staff

Japanese Ground Force
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_e ... ense_Force
approx. 150.000 staff
list of equipment link
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_e ... e#Vehicles
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_e ... e#Missiles

Japanese Coast Guard
ships 379 + 73 airplanes 13.000 staff

+additional more than 50.000 US servicemen and equipment (80 percent of all costs paid by Japan)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_St ... rces_Japan
United States Forces Japan
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