Happier Abroad Forum Community

That trade last Thursday was definitely a bad one. Problem is I'm using a smartphone and the brokerage interface is clumsy, which affects my thinking. Probably if I had a laptop, I would have delayed that trade instead of getting frustrated at the interface and rushing to beat market closing time. Not a big loss, but I could definitely have gotten the RSX cheaper by waiting. I'm probably going to derisk by selling some of the VEU if markets go up again. 30% cash, 10% silver, 60% stocks sounds about right, whereas I'm 70% stocks currently.

I may also discontinue posting in this thread. Sometimes posting trades in a public forum helps force clear thinking, sometimes it adds to confusion. I had both experiences back in 2008-2009, when I made my third fortune (first fortune was from scrimping and saving and investing from the time I was a teenager until I quit my corporate job at age 34, second was from my software business). I don't expect to make a fourth fortune with this current crisis because I waited too long to start trading. After 2013, I decided to quit thinking about investing, and hardly looked at my investments all the way from then until about mid March this year, other than derisking from USA stocks a few years back. Goal now is to be prepared for all foreseeable disasters, especially moderate inflation combined with interest rate repression, which the developed world last saw in the 1970's.

Derisked by selling some VEU, so now 30% cash, 61% stocks (49% VEU, 12% Russia), 9% silver. Good mix of cash to take advantage of dips in stocks (and deflation protection, though deflation unlikely), upside exposure as economy recovers, protection from decline in USD relative to other currencies, inflation protection (decline of all currencies relative to hard assets). Possibly move cash from zero-interest settlement account to short term corporate bonds for percent or two of yield.

Check this out. This is the ultimate PARANOIA PORN. Taco will love it. It'll give him an orgasm and wet dream. LOL

USA GENOCIDE 2021-2025
Get Out Of The USA Survival Guide

Winston wrote: ↑

April 19th, 2020, 8:01 pm

Check this out. This is the ultimate PARANOIA PORN. Taco will love it. It'll give him an orgasm and wet dream. LOL

USA GENOCIDE 2021-2025
Get Out Of The USA Survival Guide

The guy narrating this script sounds crazy, having a Southern accent doesn't help him much. However, his central message is that America is not going to be a happy place for much longer and that much I agree with him. If you haven't left North America or Europe by now then your out of luck.

22 million Americans lost their job in the last month.



At the moment, Americans are handling their unemployment status by binge drinking and eating junk food which is what they usually do anyway.

Most Americans Are Not Going To Be Able To Handle What Is Ahead
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archiv ... t-is-ahead

The oil industry is in big trouble right now and I don't see it improving. Oil prices at 21 year low. The US dollar is headed much lower.[CRASH]

Negative Crude Prices?
https://global-macro-monitor.com/2020/0 ... ery-crude/

Oil prices getting crushed on lack of demand
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/oil ... -of-demand

Were screwed because of the sheeple.

Just did some buying and rearranging so holdings now as follows (using mix of VEU, VWO, VGK, VPL, ERUS, RSX, SLV, everything below silver is stocks):
15% cash
9% silver
6% north america, australia, new zealand
14% china, taiwan, hong kong
15% japan, south korea, se asia
21% europe
13% russia
7% other emerging markets (brazil, india, etc)

No US stocks, because I consider both US dollar and US stock markets to be greatly overvalued, plus I am already heavily exposed to the US because of my citizenship, US social security pension, cash in USD. In other words, if US is destroyed but rest of world survives, I'm in trouble despite owning zero US stocks. Whereas if US survives but rest of world destroyed, I still have the US social security pension, some cash and the silver.

I don't actually want any US, Canada, Australia, or New Zealand stocks, but the last three get lumped into the ETFs I'm using, which explains that 6% above.

I think US stocks are in for a fall, same as Japan post 1989 though not as big since US not so crazy expensive as Japan then. Right now, world is desperate for dollars, but that can change. US is by far world's biggest debtor, and at some point rest of world will get sick of holding US dollars, and result will be US inflation. US interest rates will rise to stop this inflation, amd rise in rates will cause a wave of bankruptcies, given how overdebted the private sector is, both corporations and households. Coastal US, Canadian, Australian, and New Zealand real estate will also likely fall eventually because of how expensive they are.

Japan, Taiwan, China and Russia are all big creditor nations, with cheap stocks, which is why I am overweight all of them.

Europe is going to have problems because of the euro straitjacket, which is why I'm underweight Europe.

Silver is definitely not a bubble, whereas gold might be, which is why I prefer silver. Silver will do better than cash if inflation with interest rate repression, which is likely initially.

CAPE (cycle adjusted price/earnings ratios) are good now outside the US, like 13 or less. So even if markets worldwide drop further, I expect them to bounce back in a year or two. Definitely better to be stuck in stocks for next few years than bonds or cash.

Wait for a dip before moving most of remaining cash into stocks.

This will be my last post about investing, since I'm almost fully invested and will just hold for maybe a decade, with minor rebalancing now and then. No more short-term trading.

shemp why usa market not fall on tacolypse not make sense usa soon have million corona and fifty 1000s dead and economy big fall and big huge lose jobs and so big emergency maybe go long time......will happen later need for fall more over half this crazy is it google apple facebook amazon monster can control more is microsoft also is europe market fall more what happen please you the wizard not taco what is truth please tell

Spencer wrote: ↑

April 20th, 2020, 9:57 am

shemp why usa market not fall on tacolypse not make sense usa soon have million corona and fifty 1000s dead and economy big fall and big huge lose jobs and so big emergency maybe go long time......will happen later need for fall more over half this crazy is it google apple facebook amazon monster can control more is microsoft also is europe market fall more what happen please you the wizard not taco what is truth please tell

What do you mean it makes no sense ? the bankers system is the biggest con ever contrived and the markets have no resemblence of reality. These people operating out of the CITI have hijacked the entire planet, were all gonna DIE!

Taco wrote: ↑

April 20th, 2020, 12:55 am

Winston wrote: ↑

April 19th, 2020, 8:01 pm

Check this out. This is the ultimate PARANOIA PORN. Taco will love it. It'll give him an orgasm and wet dream. LOL

USA GENOCIDE 2021-2025
Get Out Of The USA Survival Guide

The oil industry is in big trouble right now and I don't see it improving. Oil prices at 21 year low. The US dollar is headed much lower.[CRASH]

Negative Crude Prices?
https://global-macro-monitor.com/2020/0 ... ery-crude/

Oil prices getting crushed on lack of demand
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/oil ... -of-demand

Lol, what nonsense. See: https://culturewhiz.org/forum/topic/oil ... ig-trouble

Spencer wrote: ↑

April 20th, 2020, 9:57 am

shemp why usa market not fall on tacolypse not make sense usa soon have million corona and fifty 1000s dead and economy big fall and big huge lose jobs and so big emergency maybe go long time......will happen later need for fall more over half this crazy is it google apple facebook amazon monster can control more is microsoft also is europe market fall more what happen please you the wizard not taco what is truth please tell

Like most old people, he doesn't know anything. I'm the millionaire investor here. The US isn't going down anytime soon. They are leveraging ~4x the money they get from the stimulus funding... $12T to manage a ~$40T market and prevent it come collapsing and so far so good, all things considered. The US is not borrowing money from foreign governments to fund the stimulus. It is simply selling bonds to itself and paying off those bonds with printed money. If everyone knows that we could extend unemployment benefits while at the same time passing $50 billion to the airlines and $17 billion to Boeing. The ten year bond rate was .61 percent yesterday. To not pump as much money as possible into the economy right now is pretty stupid. The US can get away with printing money as long as we are less worse off than other countries. Once that is no longer the case, printing money will tank the dollar and drive inflation to the roof. Given that we import a shitload of goods, a tanking dollar is a really big deal.

The stimulus is the biggest load of BS and will rob the US of wealth like nothing else... bankers dream of panic and wars, the only times people part with the sense of reason and become true idiots. They then leverage a bit of “real assets” to acquire more assets, this is a bankers wet dream. For instance, that tax cut they added to the CARE stimulus package for the rich, only averages out to $1.7m per rich guy refund payment that they can get when they amend their last two tax returns, cost to taxpayers, only $90B... retroactive BS, that is how they bought off the senators (And Trump) who might not have otherwise gone along with the CARE stimulus.

So, you take a promise of money, buy something with it, then use that as collateral to buy something else, then repeat a few more times (that what a bank does btw)... as long as the underlying assets don’t deprecate, you technically have the ability to do this — in banking and in these times of despair, if you’re the central bank Fed (who manages assets and happens to want to continue to do so). Bonds are promises to pay something back, what you pay someone back with (more bonds!) is just another illusion of wealth that this world invented to get people to do all of these amazing things... like start wars, go to the moon, drive cars, and all types of stuff like build airplanes and oil tankers.

So life goes on while the bankers strip normal people of their assets...I n ten weeks, the vit D research https://culturewhiz.org/forum/topic/how ... mmediately should have results/data to stare at. Then things get back to normal.

This is nothing more than a counterfeiting con job as communism really is, fortunetly for them the real producer class is to stupid to figure out what the money con class has done to it...

StanfordGuy wrote: ↑

April 21st, 2020, 6:33 am

I'm the millionaire investor here.

More like wannabe millionaire.

The US isn't going down anytime soon.

Depends how you define going down and soon. USA has been declining relative to rest of world in many ways since about 1970, at first very slowly, then accelerating decline in last 5 years. The reckoning is approaching.

Anyway, if markets are rationally priced, then I lose nothing by underweighting USA, since all sectors, including tech, exist elsewhere. Shell replaces Exxon, Alibaba replaces Amazon, banks elsewhere replace US banks, etc. But it's clear from the 1989 Japan experience, among others, that national markets can be irrationally priced. If there is any market that is expensive now, it's USA. Whereas Asia (Japan, China, etc), Russia, Brazil, etc are not expensive. So underweighting USA makes lots of sense.

To not pump as much money as possible into the economy right now is pretty stupid.

True.

The US can get away with printing money as long as we are less worse off than other countries. Once that is no longer the case, printing money will tank the dollar and drive inflation to the roof. Given that we import a shitload of goods, a tanking dollar is a really big deal.

Exactly.

The end result is they stole it all and you all play their game, when it is all said they will decide what you get. Humanity is so screwed!

Shemp wrote: ↑

April 21st, 2020, 7:55 am

StanfordGuy wrote: ↑

April 21st, 2020, 6:33 am

I'm the millionaire investor here.

More like wannabe millionaire.

The US isn't going down anytime soon.

Depends how you define going down and soon. USA has been declining relative to rest of world in many ways since about 1970, at first very slowly, then accelerating decline in last 5 years. The reckoning is approaching.

Anyway, if markets are rationally priced, then I lose nothing by underweighting USA, since all sectors, including tech, exist elsewhere. Shell replaces Exxon, Alibaba replaces Amazon, banks elsewhere replace US banks, etc. But it's clear from the 1989 Japan experience, among others, that national markets can be irrationally priced. If there is any market that is expensive now, it's USA. Whereas Asia (Japan, China, etc), Russia, Brazil, etc are not expensive. So underweighting USA makes lots of sense.

Well duh, there's no left wing in America, only center right and right since FDR. Right-wing politics maintains that certain social orders and hierarchies are inevitable and seek to reduce workers to cheap, replaceable parts.

Moretorque wrote: ↑

April 21st, 2020, 9:19 am

The end result is they stole it all and you all play their game, when it is all said they will decide what you get. Humanity is so screwed!

Lol, you need a better imagination.