Economic Meltdown By September

[Rock]

In late 2008, you would have made a killing if you had loaded up on US Treasuries and opened large positions in currency pairs such as USD/AUS, USD/ZAR, JPY/AUS, JPY/AUS (basically shorting high volatility higher interest rate currencies in favor of so-called safe haven ones; yes USD was perceived as a safe haven during 2009 meltdown as was Japanese Yen). Shorting crude oil would have been very profitable as well.

By late 2009 more or less, you could have made a second killing by buying distressed assets - equities and real estate both Stateside and in emerging markets, higher yield corporate bonds and bond fund, etc. Basically, it was back to risk on so reversing what made you money in 2009 would have likely made you money in 2010 and 2011.

Taco and other assorted in-house geniuses, please tell us your opinions on how one is to make a killing in late 2015 and 2016. Inquiring minds wanna know...

[Moretorque]

All I can say is the party is over for America and pretty much the whole entire world, we need to be creating jobs to repair the Eco system and go into sustainable mode world wide. I am for the most part in it.

Most people do not realize nature is fixing to dish a brutal hand to man.

[Taco]

So how exactly are you preparing Taco. Do you live out in the country? Do you grow any of your own food? The Philippines might just be a pretty safe place to be during all this. I don't know, but I think up and coming third world countries will fare much better than USA, Europe etc.

Well for starters, my main way of preparing for the coming shit storm is to quit my job and leave my home country, a move which caused a great deal of criticism from my own family. Most people won't run for the exits until it gets bad and by that time all western countries will be locked down. The wall Pres. Bush made on the Mexican border is to keep Americans from leaving, while Bush himself is basking in the sun on his 100,000 acres in Paraguay.

I live in the city and I don't have much space for growing my own food other than a few chickens. I'll buy some rice soon and put it in mylar bags for food storage. I do have a lot of canned food though. If I run out of food and money I'll just go down to the ocean catch some fish, crabs, harvest some seaweed or kill some stray dogs and eat them, that's what Filipinos do.

Fortunately, Filipinos are not prone to rioting during a calamity, I found that out during the typhoon. People here are friendly and help each other out so I would say the Philippines is safer than most western countries.

There are some people trying to profit from the market volatility that's most certainly coming. You can go ahead and trade the markets at your own risk. However, as we have seen in MF Global bankruptcy its very easy to have your trading account confiscated now. Jeff Berwick, who sold his investment website, "Stock House" for $250 million now lives permanently in Mexico, has repeatedly warned investors through his new website "Dollar Vigilante".

I remember Max Keiser once saying, "An ounce of gold could save you". I think buying metals is a good idea.

The Dollar Vigilante
https://www.dollarvigilante.com/

Jeff thinks things will start getting crazy in September, 26:00 of video.

[Taco]

[Taco]

This just in...

THE Breakdown Of 2015 Is Now A Fact
https://secularinvestor.com/breakdown-2 ... act/11986/

WTI Crude
http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil ... meframe=1y

Copper Monthly Chart

[Taco]

"We’re three months away from radical changes…and a new dollar" - Jim Willie

THE COMING GLOBAL RESET
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgA0IQ036NI#t=1115

[Moretorque]

Jim Willie also said Senator Kerry was shot and about dead as well as battles take place on the moon with monsters gunning it out over space turf.

[Taco]

Even though August threatens to be pivotal, it is going to be nothing compared to what will follow. Prepare while there is still time to do so.

11 Red Flag Events That Just Happened As We Enter The Pivotal Month Of August 2015
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/arch ... ugust-2015

[Moretorque]

What do you think the long term direction will be, will the sheeple wake up or will the elite figure a way to continue the game ? the sheeple have proven to be pretty stupid ? Major collapse and death are coming world wide I believe for sure shortly no latter than 10 or 20 years max.

[Taco]

Major collapse and death are coming world wide I believe for sure shortly no latter than 10 or 20 years max.

I give it to Christmas max.

What Is Going To Happen In September 2015?
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archiv ... d-supplies

Crashing: Apple, Twitter, Oil, Commodities, Greek Stocks, Chinese Stocks
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/arch ... ese-stocks



The price of oil is crashing. At this moment its $45.17.(August 4, 2015). Discussion on petro dollar begins at 24:00 of video.

[HappyinEurope]

Taco, I once was associated with a company that developed an algorithm to measure complexity, like in systems, markets, port folios etc., and yes also countries. Employing data from the World Bank we once rated the USA as a system, incorporating into the analysis over 800 parameters spanning:

Economy
Industry
Agriculture
Energy
Society
Ecosystem
Transportation
Telecommunications
Military/Defence
Education
Health System etc.

The result of this holistic rating process is a two-star resilience rating (i.e. low) corresponding to the classical “BBB” rating. The resilience rating is not a measure of the country’s ability to pay its debt. It is a reflection of the resilience (fragility) of the entire system and its ability to withstand shocks and extreme events, or the so-called Black Swans. We analyzed the evolution of the complexity of the US as a system in the period 1985-2010. The result is illustrated in the figure below:



What is the conclusion? First of all, a healthy growing economy means increasing complexity (green curve). This means that the critical complexity (blue curve), which measures how much complexity a system can sustain without imploding, increases. Every time a system is in a state of crisis or transition both curves become bumpy (see the bump corresponding to the dot com crisis in 2000). The magnitude of the bumps indicates the severity of the crisis. What is apparent from the plot, however, is that the current crisis is the most severe in 25 years – it sets the clock back 10-12 years, when we registered similar values of complexity. However, what is more alarming is the slope of both curves – it is negative and with a value not registered before. Basically, a negative slope points to a shrinking economy.

The second alarming point is that when the complexity of a system reaches its corresponding critical threshold (critical complexity) the system in question becomes very fragile and therefore vulnerable. Its structure becomes weak and unable to absorb any increases in uncertainty, inefficiency, and especially, shocks. In the case of the US, this is precisely what is happening. If we take a closer look at the last few years, extrapolating trend, we see that the curves will meet around 2017-2018. This situation is illustrated below.



What does this mean? It means that the complexity of the US will reach unmanageable levels and the system will essentially be out of control. Sooner than 2017 as shown, but 2015 is very close. Evidently, this statement is made based on the assumption that no major (extreme) events will take place to change the tendency. However, it is also true that current crisis is exposing the inability of modern politics to react to events of similar depth and magnitude. Consequently, the assumption seems to be pretty realistic. Moreover, very large and complex economies are characterized by immense inertia. This means that changes of any nature require a very very long time.

But the most alarming point is this. In our analysis we are not looking only at the economy of the US. The analysis is holistic. It embraces also the society, environment, education, the health system, etc. (see the complete list of parameters). This means we're looking at the US as country, not just as an economy. Even though the economy is (globally) in a state of crisis, this is not a crisis of the economy. It is a crisis of values, morals, of living beyond one's means, which, ultimately, finds itself reflected in the state of the economy. In fact, the economy and the society are one and should be analyzed as such. Everything is interconnected. The economy is only one important node of a huge and dynamic network of which we understand very little. The result is alarming due to this very fact. You can bailout a bank or a car maker, but can you "bail out an entire country"? And we're not talking of fixing the books or printing money, we're talking of fixing the entire system, which includes the economy, society, environment, education, the health system, values, morals, ethics, culture, etc., etc., etc. How do you "bail that out"? What instruments do you use? Do they have the necessary tools for such an undertaking? It is just too late, simple as that.

[Moretorque]

So basically what I think you said was America is headed for a big die off coming up soon. I think the whole entire planet is as well.

[Taco]

Even though the economy is (globally) in a state of crisis, this is not a crisis of the economy. It is a crisis of values, morals, of living beyond one's means, which, ultimately, finds itself reflected in the state of the economy. What instruments do you use? It is just too late, simple as that.

First, thanks for explaining your complexity technical analysis and charts. Its a very interesting premise and accurate way to mathematically define a collapsing country. However, I'm not that technical in my own observations.

All countries are vulnerable to economic and social collapse. This is mainly due to corrupt individuals and organizations usurping the key positions of power and then passing creative legislation that legalizes theft, taxes are a good example. However, sometimes the government loses control of the people which can result in a everyone vs. everyone scenario. The Soviet Union was so successful at undermining society that the bankers were afraid it would spiral out of control so they ended it on purpose. Americans refuse to believe American banks finance communism, they do. Its a fact all Americans will soon believe.

The "official" story is America had a financial crisis in 2008 and the US economy is now recovering. What really happened in 2008 is America went completely bankrupt, the major banks received billions from tax payers to avoid bankruptcy. In addition, these same banks then stole $ trillions in real estate(MERS scandal) when the mortgage companies went bankrupt. Its another good example of legalized theft. No mention of this was made in the media. The US dollar has been on suicide watch since 2008. Its a direct result of QE 1,2,3 and zero percent interest rates. Anytime the money supply is greatly increased the currency value always crashes. We know that the next crash (every 7 years) is coming soon, because these crashes are deliberately timed to coincide with the U.S. presidential cycle.

Governments lose their tax base with an aging population(like America's, Europe's and Asia) since retired people are no longer paying income tax, this is a problem. Retired people don't make a lot purchases either which hurts retail sales. In addition, 401K companies could save billions if their retired clients simply died. As a result, the most profitable solution to an aging population is to simply start a world war, kill everyone and then steal their assets. Hitler wasn't trying to win WW II, he was just trying to kill as many people as possible, including Germans. It was the most profitable thing to do. That's why the world leaders need to have a major war every 60 to 70 years. Cull the population, make tons of $ by stealing everyone's assets and then change the history books(or burn then) so no one figures out what really happened. The problem is normal people don't like war or killing so before they can start WW III the world leaders need to crash the economies of every country and then once the people are desperate and starving then they'll join the army(the only employer still hiring) to get paid to kill people.

Civilization is maintained by slavery and warfare. That's the name of the game.

The only saving grace is we now have the internet to educate us on such issues.

Pentagon Says Women In All Combat Units By 2016
http://edition.cnn.com/2013/06/18/polit ... en-combat/

[Moretorque]

Taco the US government essentially went bankrupt in 1933 and was rearranged even before then like in the civil war for 1 example, the US constitution states no state shall make anything other than gold or silver for payment.

There is no real payment under this system, there is no real way to facilitate honest trade and real payment because the masses do not understand the purpose of a honest economic trade model. We are being loaned a supply of #'s at interest to have our society managed by the credit monopoly. The Numbers system we live under are a make believe construct invented by man just as #'s were invented by man and as such the system is a man made created illusion, that is what socialism really is " the dupe and herd ".

We are swapping IOU's back and forth amongst each other in servitude to the creditor class, this is the reality of the 1933 bankruptcy. This is a more efficient way to govern so they believe and it has it's merits but the corruption from the power consolidation will bring it down.

Thanks for your insight in the previous post.

[Taco]

Interview from the Keiser report.

The US Empire Is Collapsing...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RnafiyK3JMI#t=656