Globalization Coming to an end?

[MrMan]

I've seen some videos from Peter Zeihan, a global strategist and author. I don't know if this is the most representative video, but it gives you an idea.



What he does is he analyzes geo-politics, economics, population demographics, etc. and makes predictions. He sees the US navy scaling back protecting the shipping lanes, and presidents moving away from the US being the world police.

Basically, the idea is that what has allowed the massive free trade or the move toward it is that the US has been policing the world for years, putting pressure on countries not to fight and defending shipping lanes from piracy even if the countries involved aren't our best friends.

If you buy a cell phone, the parts could be made in over a dozen countries. The process relies on well-protected shipping lanes. Zeihan argues that China has a very weak navy not able to defend shipping lanes over long distances. They are very dependent on foreign oil for their energy. Petroleum is a big input into their, and the rest of the world's, fertilizer manufacturing process. He says they overstated their young adult population, and it's worse than previously stated by a huge amount. So he predicts tough times for China.

If the US backs off of defending shipping lanes, China has a difficult time getting oil. That affects all of us. Our companies would not have the parts they need. He thinks the US can regroup defending trade with the Americas, Japan, and Britain. He also thinks the US defending the sea lanes is what allowed weaker smaller countries to develop as they have.

Globalization in trade allowed for a lot of economic growth and expansion of economies. But if the US stops protecting that with its navy, a lot of that may break down, and more wars might break out.

So do you think the US will keep backing off on being the world's policeman? Will economies shrink? Will there be more wars? Will trade be more dependent on regional blocks like ASEAN and the USMCO (formerly NAFTA was the agreement)?

[galii]

I've seen some videos from Peter Zeihan, a global strategist and author. I don't know if this is the most representative video, but it gives you an idea.



What he does is he analyzes geo-politics, economics, population demographics, etc. and makes predictions. He sees the US navy scaling back protecting the shipping lanes, and presidents moving away from the US being the world police.

Basically, the idea is that what has allowed the massive free trade or the move toward it is that the US has been policing the world for years, putting pressure on countries not to fight and defending shipping lanes from piracy even if the countries involved aren't our best friends.

If you buy a cell phone, the parts could be made in over a dozen countries. The process relies on well-protected shipping lanes. Zeihan argues that China has a very weak navy not able to defend shipping lanes over long distances. They are very dependent on foreign oil for their energy. Petroleum is a big input into their, and the rest of the world's, fertilizer manufacturing process. He says they overstated their young adult population, and it's worse than previously stated by a huge amount. So he predicts tough times for China.

If the US backs off of defending shipping lanes, China has a difficult time getting oil. That affects all of us. Our companies would not have the parts they need. He thinks the US can regroup defending trade with the Americas, Japan, and Britain. He also thinks the US defending the sea lanes is what allowed weaker smaller countries to develop as they have.

Globalization in trade allowed for a lot of economic growth and expansion of economies. But if the US stops protecting that with its navy, a lot of that may break down, and more wars might break out.

So do you think the US will keep backing off on being the world's policeman? Will economies shrink? Will there be more wars? Will trade be more dependent on regional blocks like ASEAN and the USMCO (formerly NAFTA was the agreement)?

I think the US will still defend the shipping lanes and if China goes to much out of line China will be restricted from certain shipping lanes. Seems like the US has still power to enforce it for a while. China has its limits.