Guys, they used to have exactly the same reservations on Colombia no more than 15 years ago. We can now see that Colombia is booming and is already the second ex-aequo (with Chile) powerhouse of South America. Indeed, considering Mexico is being plagued by the same narco warfare that used to be a trademark of Colombia and growing economic and social malaise, I wouldn't be surprised if they managed to snatch absolute second place in the whole of Latin America, in only a few years.
From what I read from the usual liberist suspects (FT.com, The Economist, etc.), the Philippines are set to become at least a regional power in the next decade, overtaking Thailand and racing on a par with Malaysia and Indonesia. Also, let's not forget that the Philippines already
did hit the ranks of a prosper and developed country, with advanced industries (electronic and computing, to name a few) and an educated, productive populace. This was soon after WW2 and then briefly during the 80s, before South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore. And before Marcos and his nomenklatura pillaged the nation's coffers leaving behind a hollow, bankrupt government full of corrupt officers.
This is also my argument against the cruel myth that Filipinos are sub-humans with the lowest IQ in Asia. I remember my dad's first IBM PC had "made in the Philippines" written all over it. Involution must happen pretty damn quick, if the same people who could design and assemble advanced electronics in the 80s, pretty much the same way Taiwanese and Chinese do now, are now only capable of throwing money at cock fights and sit on derelict Internet cafes looking for foreign men to con. A regression at the socio-cultural levels is a more likely explanation and is, after all, what is happening to countries like Mexico and even the US, as many of you bemoan.
Coming back to the comparison with Colombia, it only took one president (Uribe) who had a balanced stance on foreign investment vs. internal trade development (see
viewtopic.php?t=16807) and enough resolve to kick the FARCs off the major cities, leaving them finally able to breathe and thrive, to change the face of the country. True, the US had been investing in Colombia for a number of years, but this kind of foreign investment is ripe in the Philippines too. Colombia has excellent (albeit private) universities, their medical schools being second to none, and so do the Philippines, certainly better than Malaysia and Indonesia.
Ultimately, I think the fate of the Philippines as a developed economy is earmarked as it is that of other large, resource-rich countries in the area (Malaysia and Indonesia, and not Vietnam, not Cambodia and not even Thailand). If foreign interests don't start selling air con units, SUVs and iPads to a fast growing middle class, another Cory Aquino might come along and instill enough national pride to let the Filipinos develop their industries, tap into their massive resource pool and stimulate internal consumption and exports. There's a 92 million people market waiting. Do you think the Koreans and Japanese will just sit and stare?
On a slight romantic note, one can only hope Filipinos and Filipinas won't end up selling too much of their souls to the demons of materialism and consumerism, forgetting their biggest values yet: their innate warmth and strong sense of community/family cohesion.