The United States is Inferior to China?

[Shemp]

Russia and China are rightfully mistrustful of each other, but they are run by smart leaders who know that they both lose big if they fight. And they have no reason to fight. Who cares about some scraps of Siberia lost 150 years ago? That's like Russia attacking the USA to get back Alaska because sales price was too low.

Both Russia and China win big by cooperating to push the USA out of Asia. Once USA is gone, Russia can give back those islands it stole from Japan, so as to win them back as an ally, plus add as allies all the other Asian countries threatened by China. At that point, Russia and China split Asia more or less evenly, and might go into a cold war stalemate situation, competing with each other to get back on good terms with USA.

Anyway, conflict between Russia and China is 20+ years off. For now, they are strongly incentivized to cooperate and topple the USA from a position of world supremacy to a position as just one of 3 more or less equal powers. If the USA accepts decline gracefully, no big deal. But if USA resists, it will lose any war (especially naval war), which would lead to a sudden rather than gradual decline, and that would be a disaster in view of current USA indebtedness. This is why I've long been hedging my investment exposure, underweighting USA and overweighting Russia and Japan.

[Tsar]

Russia and China are rightfully mistrustful of each other, but they are run by smart leaders who know that they both lose big if they fight. And they have no reason to fight. Who cares about some scraps of Siberia lost 150 years ago? That's like Russia attacking the USA to get back Alaska because sales price was too low.

Both Russia and China win big by cooperating to push the USA out of Asia. Once USA is gone, Russia can give back those islands it stole from Japan, so as to win them back as an ally, plus add as allies all the other Asian countries threatened by China. At that point, Russia and China split Asia more or less evenly, and might go into a cold war stalemate situation, competing with each other to get back on good terms with USA.

Anyway, conflict between Russia and China is 20+ years off. For now, they are strongly incentivized to cooperate and topple the USA from a position of world supremacy to a position as just one of 3 more or less equal powers. If the USA accepts decline gracefully, no big deal. But if USA resists, it will lose any war (especially naval war), which would lead to a sudden rather than gradual decline, and that would be a disaster in view of current USA indebtedness. This is why I've long been hedging my investment exposure, underweighting USA and overweighting Russia and Japan.

That seems like a good scenario of the future but who can trust an unstable Republic like the United States? The United States has broken almost every treaty, broken every promise to Russia, and is actively trying to contain China to prevent it's rise.

What do you think about cryptocurrency? What about physical gold and silver?

[Shemp]

What do you think about cryptocurrency? What about physical gold and silver?

Crypto will ultimately be worthless, but I can't predict the trajectory between now and then.

Problem with physical gold and silver is where to put them. Gor example, idea of a vault full of gold in Austria is tempting, but how I can I trust the vault owners during a true crisis? Temptation is just too big. If no true crisis, then stocks are simpler and safer. And I'm not worried about USA stocks going to zero. I'm just worried about a massive price adjustment.

[Italianman]

Russia and China are rightfully mistrustful of each other, but they are run by smart leaders who know that they both lose big if they fight. And they have no reason to fight. Who cares about some scraps of Siberia lost 150 years ago? That's like Russia attacking the USA to get back Alaska because sales price was too low.

Both Russia and China win big by cooperating to push the USA out of Asia. Once USA is gone, Russia can give back those islands it stole from Japan, so as to win them back as an ally, plus add as allies all the other Asian countries threatened by China. At that point, Russia and China split Asia more or less evenly, and might go into a cold war stalemate situation, competing with each other to get back on good terms with USA.

Anyway, conflict between Russia and China is 20+ years off. For now, they are strongly incentivized to cooperate and topple the USA from a position of world supremacy to a position as just one of 3 more or less equal powers. If the USA accepts decline gracefully, no big deal. But if USA resists, it will lose any war (especially naval war), which would lead to a sudden rather than gradual decline, and that would be a disaster in view of current USA indebtedness. This is why I've long been hedging my investment exposure, underweighting USA and overweighting Russia and Japan.

Lol, they do have a reason to fight. As I previously stated, China has an expanding urban population but has only 0.21 acres of fertile land per capita. Almost every war begins with a land grab. Have you heard of World War II?

Why would Japan want some insignificant islands? They have a rapidly shrinking population, and rural towns are so desperate for young people that they are giving away houses for free (ish). In Japan, there are an estimated 10 million abandoned homes, many of which are in rural areas.

Why are they incentivized to cooperate? If the United States loses power, China will quickly fill the void. Russia would be nowhere to be found. Do you believe China will allow Russia to establish a new empire? The purpose of many wars (aside from land and religion) is to bring countries into your economic zones. That is already happening as a result of globalization. Everyone is now a capitalist, and religion is non-existent in Russia and China. Slaves ($30/month) are imported from India to do all the work in the Middle East, for example. It is entirely legal, with the home country handling all paperwork.

Running the world is a costly business, and for the most part, China enjoys the United States doing it. The United States is like the world court system, so you're going to have some disagreements here and there.

[Shemp]

Stuuning collapse of Afghanistan is foretaste of eventual stunning collapse of USA puppet states in Persian Gulf and of USA influence everywhere in Asia. USA presence in Asia is based on sea power, surface navy technology, but surface navies are increasingly vulnerable to developments since WW2 in anti-surface ship weapon technology. In particular, drone subs and drone torpedoes. Take away USA sea power and it becomes a paper tiger.