MrMan wrote:I was looking at an add for an apartment just south of the Jakarta area in the direction of Bogor. About $25K for a two bedroom. The down payment is around $3000. The apartment hasn't been built yet. They are supposed to open the units to investors in early 2018. All the monthly payments could total up to about $3000 to $4000 (nominal, as in not adjusted for inflation) before the apartment is completed. The market price for apartments out there now seems to be around $50k.
I'd be assuming the risk of buying a unit before it is built. In the past, when developers went bankrupt, new developers took over, usually new developers who are less risky, and this can actually cause the unit's price to go up.
I think there is a market for 'second hand' not-yet-built units, and that the price appreciates.
Two bedrooms isn't big enough for my family to actually live in, but it would be a good investment.
I just need to make sure the land is owned by the investors in the building, not someone who technically has the legal right to destroy the building. I've heard some structure it that way. I don't think tearing down sold airspace units like this is common in Jakarta. Buildings can be delayed for a year.
I'll have to look more into market prices. Some apartments have appreciated in a short period of time.
I know some investors played that game a few years in Bangkok (buy condos early pre-sale and then re-sell either soon after for hot projects that sold-out fast or when structure is about complete. It worked pretty well when real estate prices were still rising fast and before there were so many projects. Now prices are already too high and there are way too many condos in central and nearby outlying areas. I don't know the situation in outer Jakarta at moment.
But I forgot to add what I consider another big risk - buying pre-sale. Many people have been burned one way or another in SE Asia. Some examples:
- Read Starchild's posting of presale buyers in the Philippines who got screwed over by the likes of Ayala and SMDC. I'll mention some of these and other potential risks below.
- Project can be delayed for a very long time. Example of this is Penthouse Suites in Angeles City which was over 4-9 years late on delivery of final units depending on which wave of buyers. Another project which is years behind schedule is just 100 meters from where I stay here in Makati - the Stratfordshire.
- Developer can go bankrupt and no new party comes in to buy them out, especially in case of wide-spread financial crisis. This happened with dozens of projects in Bangkok back in 1998-9. An icon from that era still standing as an empty shell is the "Ghost Building" right along Chao Phrya River. All the pre-sale investors of that building are still left holding the bag nearly 2 decades later.
- Project can be delayed indefinitely due to unexpected factors. Example of this is Waterfront Suites and Residences, a luxury condo right at Bali Hai Pier in Pattaya. Local residents complained in mass that the high towers were partially blocking iconic view from Buddha Mountain so local officials found reasons to indefinitely halt further construction over 2 years ago. The project may eventually get completed but will likely be reduced in height. I'm sure those who put down pre-sale money, especially foreigner name units which require much higher percentage of money upfront, deeply regret getting involved. Going back into the deep past (1980s), the UFO towers in northern Taiwan were almost completed but then cancelled due to many unexplained deaths of workmen and passers by on nearby highway. It was widely believed that this high-end sea-side project aimed at vacationing expats was haunted so developer cancelled it and walked. The shells remained empty till 2 or 3 years ago when they were finally demolished.
- A common trick which Starchild's related thread brought up is to sell that unit at an estimated size but then before the unit is turned over, official zoning claims there is an extra 0.5 - 2.0 sq. meters for a smaller condo. As per contracts (and developers add this clause in both in Thailand and Philippines), unit owner will pay at same implied per sq. meter rate for any extra size in final zoning and developer will reimburse buyer at this rate in case zoning of unit turns out to be smaller than estimate. Guess what? In my experience, the completed unit often (perhaps even almost always) get zoned at a slightly higher size than the original plan suggests so you have to pay this. This adds a significant percentage to final price yet it's often hard to measure out the full size they claim. Clearly developer must have some deal with zoning officials for sharing of money from fictitious extra end size.
Remember, pre-sale prices are not always lower. If market is in downturn, actual transaction prices when project is finished may be lower than lowest presale prices. Developer will initiate false price raises during building of unit. But that is misleading. What matters is what you actually can get in the secondary market. Many sellers may list their units at say 500 but no buyers emerge until it gets bargained down to say 400. So the asking prices in early secondary market (while building is still being built) and developer price raises are fiction unless a significant number of transactions actually get executed near these prices. Buying straight from developer, especially as project progresses toward middle to late stage, is usually not a good deal.
IMO, the simplest game is to be a vulture - wait for rush/sacrifice re-sale opportunities from motivated to desperate sellers of fairly new or even not yet turned over developments. In that case, what you see is what you get and you can use unit from day one. No waiting, minimal uncertainty, and perhaps a lower than presale price if the deal was good enough.