Cavalier Anecdotal Denialists.

[ladislav]

Cavalier Anecdotal Denialists.

You may have met such people on expat sites. They like to boast by stating such things as:

"I've been to this and that place and I never had any problem".

"I've overstayed my visa by one year and all I had to do is pay a small fine."

"I've had intimate encounters with ( put the number) people and never used protection. Never got anything."

Such denials of perils based on one person's experience do not prove anything. They also don't mean that:

1.the person will continue not having any problems in the future,
2. you can also get away with such things by imitating that person's cavalier actions and attitude.

For some expats who could not get back to the PH, Mexico became an alternative. But in the past two months, there have been changes there. With the huge immigration crisis on the border and some possible grudges that Mexico has with other countries, they are getting stricter with tourists.

I was just on the Mexican expat forum, and there has been a video that is making it known that Mexico is cracking down on 180 day visas and permanent tourists. They are numerous report of them now giving people only 7, 10, or 20 days, and some are even being turned back. This unprecedented change in policy started just two months ago.

Also, it has become dangerous to go out without a passport on you. Before, you could just carry a copy or carry your DL from your country, and it was OK. Now, Mexican immigration checks tourists on the beaches, on the buses-- pretty much everywhere--and demanding to see passports with the entry card. If people don't carry those, some have been carted off to the detention center.

Apparently, now, you have to swim with a waterproof pouch around your neck with your passport in it, or leave someone on the shore to hold on to it for you.

After people posted these experiences, the Cavalier Anecdotal Denialists came out in full force and began their "assault" with statements of the kind of:

" Just got back into Mexico. Got 180 days. No problem!"

" I'm staying near the police station in Mexico, and they are all super friendly to me. I love Mexico. Never any problem".

" I spent the whole day on the beach with no passport on me, and then, I went into town and I didn't carry my passport. No one stopped or checked me. No problem!"

Then, some of these denialists begin blaming those to whom such things happened for being at fault. " You probably look like a bum!" "You need to be confident!"

The logic here is faulty. The new policy is spotty and selective and does not affect 100% of tourists in 100% of places and situations. But now, there is a possibility of that happening, and if you keep pushing your luck, sooner or later, you will become the %% of those to whom it did happen. There is also no proof that it is based on the foreign visitor "looking like a bum" or not " looking confident", and thus triggering this policy. The new measures seem to be affecting all people across the board.

It is better to err on the side of caution, prepare for all eventualities and never listen to those who deny peril because it never happened to them. Expat life is fraught with constant changes, new rules and general uncertainty. Better be safe than sorry.