Tacopacalypse

[Taco]

The US markets will drop like a rock in April when the 1st quarter earnings reports come out. They've already warned us...

Morgan Stanley Sees Melt-Up Lasting Until April, After Which Markets Will "Confront World With No Fed Support"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morga ... rld-no-fed

Demand for oil has dropped off a cliff...

Crude Oil WTI
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=CL


The government is so worried about your health they will declare martial law in every country for six months, it will be fantastic! What they don't tell you is bank runs, hyperinflation, war, crime spike and starvation will also occur.

Coronavirus: More businesses in Italy to shut down as outbreak worsens
https://www.ft.com/content/d184a0af-3fc ... 5379b8116d

Coronavirus begins shutting down public life across Germany
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-begin ... a-52743358

Coronavirus: All non-essential workplaces ordered to close in Ontario
https://globalnews.ca/news/6717022/onta ... -march-23/

‘We will enforce’: Denver, Colorado facing 40-DAY ‘stay at home’ order in response to coronavirus
https://www.rt.com/usa/483898-denver-st ... ronavirus/

Starting Tomorrow, America Will Begin Shutting Down With States Implementing A ‘Stay At Home’ Order In Place And Closing ‘Non-Essential’ Businesses
https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/sta ... usinesses/

[MrMan]

The US markets will drop like a rock in April when the 1st quarter earnings reports come out. They've already warned us...

That sounds like a reasonable prediction. But I don't think that lines up with a strong market hypothesis. The market knows the economy is in the toilet and that bad first quarter earnings reports are coming out, so the current price should reflect that knowledge. It could be, though, that the market goes up a bit if the damage isn't as disastrous as predicted, or it could dip and bounce up a bit from relief at knowing what the results are. Gold dropped when Trump was elected then bounced back up. Maybe the Dems sold it and the Republicans started buying it up fast.


I had a retirement fund I was putting off making a decision on because the vendor I was using was slow about getting me my information. Then this Corona thing hit. I'm just holding off on making a decision, waiting for the stock market to drop. I'm thinking of going with all equity. I was going to diversify internationally, but I don't know. I'd have to look at the details of the developing country funds, but the Hang Seng Index seems to be pretty strong considering everything that is going on, so I don't know if it is time to invest there.

[MrMan]

The government is so worried about your health they will declare martial law in every country for six months, it will be fantastic! What they don't tell you is bank runs, hyperinflation, war, crime spike and starvation will also occur.

Trump is talking about getting the government up and running in 15 days. I think he's opting for trying to be the president to get the economy back on track as opposed to the one who leads us through the crisis. If he locked us down through November and scared everyone with his speeches, he could probably win the election that way. The Democratic Convention could be held digitally, with one person or one family on camera at a time and no hype. It would be hard to beat an incumbent without the usual hooplah, if they have a chance.

Now, I don't know if they have a chance because the economy was Trump's strong selling point, but I think the population can see the benefits of continuity in government during a crisis.

If we have a tacopacalypse, my wife bought some flour tortillas while we were stocking up before the shelves were empty, and I asked her to get some corn tortillas, too. So we could fry those corn tortillas if we had to and cook up some meat out of the freezer we bought. If it's late enough, I might have some lettuce from the garden, but I could supplement from clover from the yard. We have some taco seasoning, too. So if there is a tacopacalypse, I think we'll be okay.

[MrMan]

By the way, we do have some dried beans over here, so we might be okay if there is a burritoapocalypse, too.

[Shemp]

The US markets will drop like a rock in April when the 1st quarter earnings reports come out. They've already warned us...

That sounds like a reasonable prediction. But I don't think that lines up with a strong [sic, probably meant "efficient"] market hypothesis. The market knows the economy is in the toilet and that bad first quarter earnings reports are coming out, so the current price should reflect that knowledge.

Yes.

I'm just holding off on making a decision, waiting for the stock market to drop. I'm thinking of going with all equity. I was going to diversify internationally, but I don't know.

It dropped enormously already. Everything except the big glamourous USA growth stocks (Apple, Amazon. etc), which were very expensive before and are still not cheap. See charts in linked articles below. Whats cheap now is most of the world ex-USA, plus USA value and small factors (small value especially cheap). I bought big into VEU (world ex-USA) and VXF (USA ex-SP500) myself a few days back. I was already 60% those ETFs earlier this year, so down a lot, but they were good values then and they are excellent values now.

VTV would give USA large cap value factor, if you want more USA focused holdings. My feeling is enough European large cap value in VEU, and cheaper than USA large cap value in VTV, which is why I didn't bother with the latter. Once things settle down, I'll probably shift some of my VXF into cheaper emerging market value stocks. I'm researching those ETFs now.

Note that if you can't tolerate volatility, you shouldn't be in stocks. Volatility is the long term stock investor's friend, because it ensures that there will always be an equity risk premium (other than during bubbles like Japan 1989, USA 2000, world 2007, etc). Without volatility, stock prices would be at a permanently high level, with low prospective returns.

https://www.topdowncharts.com/single-po ... y-Emerging

https://mebfaber.com/2020/03/21/stock-market-valuations

https://www.gmo.com/europe/research-lib ... 19-update/

https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-l ... different/

https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-l ... uary-2020/

https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-l ... r-markets/

[MrMan]

The US markets will drop like a rock in April when the 1st quarter earnings reports come out. They've already warned us...

But investors know that, so this knowledge is at least partly reflected in the price of stocks now.

Have you stocked up masks, toilet paper, and hand sanitizer, and food including taco shells for the tacopacalypse?

[MrMan]

It dropped enormously already. Everything except the big glamourous USA growth stocks (Apple, Amazon. etc), which were very expensive before and are still not cheap.

A lot of Americans are making ends meet, but a lot of the shopping has shifted to online venues like Amazon. So they might actually make more this quarter, or if they make less, it probably won't hurt them as bad as it hits some other vendors. But Walmart might actually be doing well during this stock-up-supplies period. When people have been out of work for a while, those who used to shop at Target and Wholefoods may go downmarket to Walmart, if they are allowed to shop. A bad economy can be good for Walmart, McDonald's, etc.

[Shemp]

I just want to comment, even though I dislike short-term trading of stock, meaning buying and selling and buying again, versus long term holding, I'm probably going to trade now because the mass hysteria and volatility makes trading so tempting. I do not recommend this for other people.

[Moretorque]

The stock market is a joke,

[Taco]

The Rocky Mountain region of the Western US is the safest place to be when all the shit goes down. Everyone that hasn't already left the US will be attempting to move there.

There's no reason a rapper would ever want to move to Wyoming unless something bad is about to happen, the shopping sucks, there's no cocaine and no hookers and his neighbors will be heavily armed white people...

Kanye West ‘splashes $14.4million on ranch’ and we’re one step closer to the Kardashian-Wests Take Wyoming
https://metro.co.uk/2019/11/19/kanye-we ... -11179819/

Kanye West just splashed out nearly $15 million on another massive ranch in Wyoming
https://www.businessinsider.com/kanye-w ... os-2019-11

[Shemp]

Probably going to sell that VXF I bought Monday. It was cheap then but not after 20% gain since then, and I don't want to own anything that's not cheap right now, given all the volatility. Trend is up, but these steep rallies from panic conditions are treacherous, so trend could reverse at any moment. Lots of nimble speculators out there trying to outsmart one another. Few true investors.

[MrMan]

The Rocky Mountain region of the Western US is the safest place to be when all the shit goes down. Everyone that hasn't already left the US will be attempting to move there.

There's no reason a rapper would ever want to move to Wyoming unless something bad is about to happen, the shopping sucks, there's no cocaine and no hookers and his neighbors will be heavily armed white people...

Kanye West ‘splashes $14.4million on ranch’ and we’re one step closer to the Kardashian-Wests Take Wyoming
https://metro.co.uk/2019/11/19/kanye-we ... -11179819/

Kanye West just splashed out nearly $15 million on another massive ranch in Wyoming
https://www.businessinsider.com/kanye-w ... os-2019-11

Maybe he's sick of that kind of lifestyle, wants to settle down, farm/ranch, and travel around with his new Christian albums.

[Shemp]

Sold the VXF near end of day, up almost exactly 20% since I bought on Monday. Trending up but I want to de-risk a little and pocket some gains. So back to 79% VEU, 21% cash. Next move is switch some of that VEU to ERUS (Russian stocks, mostly oil and gas and other mining) as an inflation hedge, then trade with the cash.

[Moretorque]

The Rocky Mountain region of the Western US is the safest place to be when all the shit goes down. Everyone that hasn't already left the US will be attempting to move there.

There's no reason a rapper would ever want to move to Wyoming unless something bad is about to happen, the shopping sucks, there's no cocaine and no hookers and his neighbors will be heavily armed white people...

Kanye West ‘splashes $14.4million on ranch’ and we’re one step closer to the Kardashian-Wests Take Wyoming
https://metro.co.uk/2019/11/19/kanye-we ... -11179819/

Kanye West just splashed out nearly $15 million on another massive ranch in Wyoming
https://www.businessinsider.com/kanye-w ... os-2019-11

Maybe he's sick of that kind of lifestyle, wants to settle down, farm/ranch, and travel around with his new Christian albums.

No the US is coming down, you just cannot stop a massive economy like that that is so dependent on the service sector and shut all that down.

This will more than likely kill millions upon millions soon,

[Taco]

The global economy is about to have a Thelma and Louise moment. Brace for impact...

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us- ... rs-economy

A Word About the Horrid Spike in Unemployment Claims and Why it’s Even More Horrid Than it Appears
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/03/26/a-wor ... t-appears/